Talks between the United States and Iran, set to begin on Saturday in Oman, face significant challenges due to deep-seated mistrust and complex issues. Time is limited for what is expected to be a complicated negotiation process.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, noted, “We’re at a fork in the road, heading toward a crisis.” While President Trump has issued threats of military action against Iran, he has also expressed a preference for a diplomatic resolution, a stance that may be welcomed in the Arab world.
Arab nations, from Egypt to the Gulf, are concerned about the potential economic and social fallout from a conflict involving the U.S. and Israel, particularly amid ongoing violence in Gaza. Trump's demands for Iran to cease nuclear enrichment, surrender its enriched uranium, and dismantle its nuclear facilities are likely to be rejected by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who may view them as humiliating.
The upcoming talks are expected to involve high-level officials, including Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff. There is disagreement over whether the discussions will be “direct” or “indirect,” but the significance of the participants remains paramount.
As Mr. Araghchi stated, the negotiations represent both an opportunity and a test of both sides' willingness to engage seriously on Iran's nuclear program, which Iran claims is for civilian purposes, in exchange for sanctions relief.
European officials have indicated that the window for negotiations is narrow, as they must decide by the end of July whether to reimpose United Nations sanctions against Iran, which are currently suspended under the 2015 nuclear deal. The reimposition of these sanctions is seen as crucial leverage to encourage Iran to comply with the existing agreement or negotiate a new one.
If sanctions are reinstated, Iran has threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, potentially leading to military action from Israel, supported by the U.S., to neutralize Iran's nuclear capabilities. Both nations have committed to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
The European nations involved in the deal, including Britain, Germany, and France, are under pressure to make a decision before Russia, which has strengthened ties with Iran, assumes the presidency of the Security Council in October.
Iran is also scheduled to hold technical discussions regarding its nuclear program with Russian and Chinese officials in Moscow. Russia has expressed support for the Oman talks, advocating for a political resolution to the nuclear issue.
Concerns have been raised about the U.S. administration's approach to negotiations, with experts warning that negotiating under threat may not constitute a viable long-term strategy. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the region, including deploying long-range bombers and an additional aircraft carrier, while also conducting military operations against Iranian-aligned groups.
Iran is keen to avoid further sanctions, especially following the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. However, European nations have indicated that they will reimpose sanctions if a new agreement is not reached, prompting Iran to threaten to abandon the nonproliferation treaty.
Despite Iran's willingness to allow international nuclear inspectors, the International Atomic Energy Agency has noted that Iran's previous lack of transparency has obscured the true state of its nuclear program. The potential for an unregulated Iranian nuclear program raises alarms for both the U.S. and Israel, who fear a rapid advancement toward weaponization.
Analysts suggest that a military campaign against Iran could provoke significant retaliation, including attacks on U.S. and Israeli interests and Gulf infrastructure. The prospect of Iran developing a nuclear weapon could further escalate tensions in the region.
Whether European nations will be able to delay the imposition of sanctions remains uncertain, with analysts suggesting that substantial progress toward a new agreement would be necessary for any postponement.
Given the mutual distrust, particularly following the U.S. withdrawal from the previous nuclear deal, any new agreement would need to ensure stringent restrictions on Iran's nuclear advancements in exchange for long-term economic guarantees, which Khamenei may view with skepticism.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has advocated for a deal similar to that of Libya in 2003, which could complicate diplomatic efforts. Experts warn that if the U.S. aims to dismantle Iran's nuclear program entirely, it may hinder the chances for successful negotiations.
Some analysts believe that Iran is preparing for potential conflict, as evidenced by internal social policies and political maneuvers. Despite perceived vulnerabilities, experts caution against underestimating Iran's resilience and determination to avoid appearing submissive to external pressures.