Speculation regarding the next Roman Catholic pope is fraught with uncertainty, as past predictions have often proven inaccurate. Prior to the election of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers did not even consider him a leading candidate.
This time, the situation is further complicated by Pope Francis' rapid appointments during his tenure, which have diversified the College of Cardinals and obscured the identification of factions within the group.
Despite this, discussions about potential successors have been ongoing within the Vatican, with several names emerging as contenders. Some candidates are expected to continue Francis' progressive agenda, while others may represent a return to traditional values. Analysts suggest that the College may favor a candidate with experience in international relations.
Among the possible candidates is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, who serves as the Vatican’s top official for Middle East affairs. Although he became a cardinal only in 2023, his experience in conflict zones has elevated his profile. Pizzaballa, who has largely avoided doctrinal controversies, might appeal to the College of Cardinals, though some consider him too young for the papacy.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, has been serving as Pope Francis’ secretary of state since 2013. Known for his mild demeanor and centrist views, Parolin is well-versed in the Vatican’s administration and international relations, having served as a diplomat for over two decades. His fluency in multiple languages and expertise on issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and climate change position him as a strong candidate.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, the archbishop of Kinshasa, has been a notable contender since his elevation to cardinal in 2019. He represents the vibrant Catholic communities in Africa, although the conservative nature of the African hierarchy presents a paradox in selecting a pope from the continent. Ambongo has been involved in advisory roles close to Pope Francis, but has also opposed some of Francis’ rulings.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, is often referred to as the “Asian Francis” and is viewed as a potential front-runner. Known for his personable approach and alignment with Francis’ mission to support the marginalized, Tagle has dealt with divisive issues within the Church and has been actively involved in pastoral initiatives.
Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, 69, reflects Francis' vision of a church that supports the poor. Promoted to cardinal in 2019, Zuppi has been assigned important missions and is closely associated with the Sant’Egidio community, which emphasizes service and conflict resolution. His connections may enhance his candidacy, although concerns about potential influence from this group exist.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, an expert in canon law, is anticipated to appeal to those favoring a return to conservatism reminiscent of previous popes. He has held significant positions within the Church and is known for his diplomatic skills and engagement with other religious groups, although he has expressed traditional views on issues such as communion for divorced Catholics.
Lastly, Archbishop Anders Arborelius, 75, is Sweden’s first Catholic cardinal and has emphasized the need for unity within the Church. He has addressed contemporary challenges, including the role of women and the importance of bridging divides, while also expressing opposition to same-sex couple blessings.