Speculation surrounding the next Roman Catholic pope has often proven to be unreliable. Before the election of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers did not even consider him a front-runner.
The current predictions are further complicated by the rapid appointments made by Francis during his papacy, which have diversified the College of Cardinals and obscured the identification of movements and factions within the group.
Despite this, discussions regarding potential candidates have been ongoing within Vatican walls, with several names emerging as possibilities.
Some candidates are thought to be likely to continue Francis’ progressive agenda, while others may represent a return to traditional values. Experts suggest the College might favor a candidate with experience in international relations.
Among the potential contenders is Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, who currently serves as the Vatican’s top official for Middle East affairs. Having become a cardinal in 2023, his experience in a significant conflict zone has raised his profile. Pizzaballa would be the first Italian pope since John Paul I in 1978, but he is also viewed as an international figure, distant from Vatican politics.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, has served as Pope Francis’ secretary of state since 2013, overseeing internal church affairs and foreign policy. A mild-mannered centrist, Parolin has extensive experience in diplomacy and has played a significant role in improving the Vatican’s relations with countries like China and Vietnam.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, the archbishop of Kinshasa, has also been identified as a potential candidate. Since being made a cardinal in 2019, he has been recognized as a voice for the Church in Africa, a region where Catholicism is vibrant. Despite this, there are concerns about the conservative nature of the African hierarchy.
Another contender is Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, often referred to as the "Asian Francis." A liberal-leaning cardinal, Tagle has been associated with Francis’ focus on the poor and marginalized. He has addressed divisive issues within the Church and has gained recognition for his personable approach.
Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, 69, has been closely aligned with Francis’ vision of a Church supportive of the poor. Appointed cardinal in 2019, Zuppi has been involved in various missions and has served as the archbishop of Bologna, where he has focused on issues related to migrants and poverty.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, from Hungary, represents a more conservative perspective, advocating for traditional Catholic values. He has diplomatic experience and has spoken out against allowing divorced Catholics to receive communion, as well as against immigration.
Lastly, Archbishop Anders Arborelius, 75, is Sweden's first Catholic cardinal, having converted to Catholicism at age 20. He has highlighted the need for unity within the Church and has expressed support for migrants, while opposing the blessing of same-sex couples.