The Islamic State has demonstrated a resurgence in Syria, attracting new recruits and increasing its attack frequency in the past year, as reported by the United Nations and U.S. officials. This development raises concerns about further instability in a country still recovering from the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad.
While the group is not as potent as it was a decade ago, when it controlled significant territories in eastern Syria and northern Iraq, experts warn that it could potentially orchestrate the escape of thousands of its hardened fighters from prisons overseen by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces.
A notable resurgence of the Islamic State could thwart Syria's rare opportunity to overcome a brutal dictatorship and might also lead to broader regional instability. Historically, the extremist group has utilized Syria as a base to plan attacks on its neighbors and in Europe.
Currently, between 9,000 and 10,000 Islamic State fighters, along with approximately 40,000 of their family members, are detained in northeastern Syria. Their escape would not only bolster the group's numbers but also offer significant propaganda value.
Colin Clarke, head of research for a global intelligence firm, emphasized the importance of the prisons and camps, stating that they hold experienced fighters whose release would enhance the group's capabilities and aid recruitment efforts.
U.S. intelligence officials recently presented a worldwide threat assessment to Congress, indicating that the Islamic State intends to capitalize on the potential end of the Assad regime to free prisoners and enhance its operational capacity.
In response, the United States has increased its troop presence in Syria to approximately 2,000 and conducted numerous strikes against Islamic State positions in the Syrian desert, thereby containing the immediate threat. However, President Trump has expressed skepticism about a prolonged U.S. military presence in the region.
The United States hopes that the new Syrian government, led by a former Al Qaeda affiliate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, can assist in combating a resurgent Islamic State. Early indications are promising, with the group utilizing U.S. intelligence to thwart several Islamic State plots in Damascus.
Nonetheless, recent sectarian violence resulting in civilian casualties has raised questions about the government's control and its capacity to confront the Islamic State effectively.
The Islamic State originated from Al Qaeda in Iraq, where it was initially defeated by local militias and U.S. forces. It rebranded and took advantage of the chaos during Syria's civil war, expanding its territory and notoriety through horrific acts.
Although the Islamic State has lost much of its territorial control, it continues to propagate its ideology through clandestine cells and has been responsible for significant attacks beyond Syria, including in Iran, Russia, and Pakistan.
In Syria, the group claimed 294 attacks in 2024, a notable increase from 121 in 2023, according to a U.S. defense department official. The United Nations monitoring committee estimated approximately 400 attacks, with human rights observers reporting even higher numbers.
While attacks have reportedly diminished in early 2024, U.S. military officials attribute this to the recent bombing campaigns targeting Islamic State forces. However, uncertainties remain as the situation continues to evolve.
Analysts suggest that the new government's challenges, including remnants of the Assad regime and Turkish incursions, are compounded by the resurgent threat posed by the Islamic State. A significant attack in Damascus could shift perceptions and prompt a reevaluation of responses.
Concerns about potential prison breaks have intensified amid ongoing violence in northeastern Syria, where Kurdish-led forces guard detention centers. However, these forces are increasingly preoccupied with Turkish-backed militia attacks, further complicating the situation.
The prisons have a history of security breaches, with nearly 400 Islamic State-linked prisoners escaping during an assault in 2022. U.S. intelligence has played a role in averting other possible jailbreaks since then.
In Al Hol, the largest camp for Islamic State-affiliated women and children, reports indicate that some fighters have managed to escape, although exact figures remain unclear. Analysts warn that any further weakening of Kurdish forces in the region would create a vacuum that the Islamic State could exploit.