Many Russians initially welcomed President Trump's election, believing he could facilitate a negotiated peace in Ukraine that would satisfy the Kremlin. However, three months into his second term, disappointment in Moscow has become evident.
Interviews with individuals connected to the Kremlin reveal frustration with Trump's rapid approach to negotiations and President Vladimir Putin's apparent rigidity. With Trump and his top diplomat warning that the U.S. might withdraw from discussions, there are concerns that a breakdown in talks could escalate the conflict further.
Grigory A. Yavlinsky, a liberal politician in Moscow, expressed that the movement toward peace is progressing “much more slowly than it should be.” He noted that Putin seems focused on maximizing gains before substantive negotiations can occur.
The current challenge lies in whether Putin will relent on demands that have not significantly changed since last summer, which include Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO and withdrawing from certain territories before Russia ceases hostilities.
Despite blunt warnings from Trump and his administration about running out of patience, Putin has not shifted his stance on a cease-fire that Ukraine accepted in March. On Saturday, Putin announced a one-day “Easter truce,” which he claimed was intended to demonstrate Russia's interest in peace.
Putin suggested that Ukraine's response would indicate its willingness to engage in negotiations. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the announcement as a “next attempt to play with people’s lives,” without confirming whether Ukraine would observe the truce.
Given Trump's lack of support for Ukraine and his escalating tensions with American allies, Putin appears increasingly confident in Russia's ability to prevail in a prolonged conflict. The Kremlin is also hinting at potential lucrative business opportunities for American firms in Russia to appeal to Trump, regardless of battlefield outcomes.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the U.S. could decide to “move on” from efforts to end the war in a matter of days. Trump later remarked that if negotiations become too difficult, the U.S. might simply withdraw.
The Kremlin has signaled that it is not in a hurry to reach a deal while maintaining that it is “open for dialogue.” Dmitri A. Medvedev, a former president, stated that Russia would not mind if the U.S. withdrew from Ukraine, suggesting that Russia could resolve the situation more swiftly on its own.
Russians largely viewed Trump's return to the White House positively, with many expressing hope for an end to the war. Putin has remained largely silent on the conflict since a recent visit to an Arctic submarine, where he claimed Russia was prepared to “finish them off,” referring to Ukraine.
Despite multiple high-level meetings between American and Russian officials, including discussions in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the U.S., no significant progress has been made in reducing hostilities or missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Nevertheless, Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about potentially concluding the conflict.
Behind the scenes, some individuals with Kremlin connections have expressed frustration, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of ongoing diplomacy. Reports indicate that Putin has been more resistant than expected in agreeing to a cease-fire and seems determined to maintain control over the four Ukrainian regions claimed by Russia in 2022.
Analysts close to the government suggest that Putin has not demonstrated the flexibility anticipated regarding territorial issues. The Kremlin is also attempting to broaden negotiations with the U.S. to include topics such as energy and spaceflight, aiming for continued engagement even if Ukraine discussions falter.
Some Russians believe that the impatience expressed by the White House is influenced by American political dynamics, particularly Trump's campaign promise to swiftly end the war. Feodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, noted that both nations are still at the beginning of the path toward peace.
Voitolovsky emphasized that Russia will not compromise its interests for the sake of Trump's domestic political challenges. He warned that if the U.S. withdraws from negotiations, Russia will need to create conditions for a diplomatic process through “new uses of force.”
Yavlinsky, who met with Putin in October 2023 to advocate for a cease-fire, criticized the Biden administration for not making a stronger effort toward a negotiated peace. He noted that Trump is currently failing to address Europe's postwar security, which is essential for any agreement, and called for increased European involvement.
“The American administration has only the most general wishes of what it wants,” Yavlinsky stated, adding that there is a lack of clarity on how to achieve those goals.