Canada's upcoming election, scheduled for April 28, has been shaped by significant political events and public sentiment since the beginning of the year. Recent public opinion polls reveal a dynamic political landscape influenced by factors such as President Trump's trade policies and the resignation of the previous prime minister.
In early February, President Trump's initiation of a trade war and threats to Canadian sovereignty reversed previous polling trends, resulting in increased support for the Liberal Party and a decline for the Conservative Party. The Conservatives, who once held a lead of over 20 points, now find themselves trailing the Liberals by an average of six percentage points.
Canadians have identified tensions with the United States as a primary concern, with a recent Angus Reid Institute poll indicating that 51 percent of voters who switched their support to the Liberals cited Trump's actions as a significant factor in their decision.
The Liberal Party is also experiencing a boost from new leadership. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau following his resignation, has garnered favorable ratings. According to the same Angus Reid poll, 56 percent of party-switchers indicated that Carney was a key reason for their support shift. Carney's favorability rating stands at 54 percent, surpassing that of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
Despite the Liberals' strong performance, the Conservative Party is not performing poorly; rather, the Liberals are consolidating support on the left. Currently, the Liberals are polling around 44 percent, while the Conservatives are at 38 percent. Historically, the Conservatives have achieved power with similar support levels, but the current political climate has allowed the Liberals to consolidate left-leaning votes, resulting in a decline for the NDP.
Demographic shifts are also notable, particularly among younger voters. Polling indicates that Canadians aged 18 to 34 have shown a preference for the Conservatives, with some polls reporting a lead of up to 10 percentage points. This shift is attributed to Conservative leader Poilievre's appeal for change among younger Canadians, who are increasingly concerned about issues like the cost of living.
While older Canadians prioritize the trade war as a key issue, younger voters are more likely to highlight other concerns. Additionally, the gender gap in support for the Conservatives is narrowing, with recent polls showing nearly equal support among men for both major parties. Only one demographic group, men aged 35 to 54, continues to show a clear preference for the Conservative Party, although this gap is also decreasing.