The Kremlin's summary of President Vladimir V. Putin’s recent call with President Trump indicates that Putin has not shifted from his ambitious objectives in Ukraine and has made few concessions. The discussion included a limited 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes, a prisoner exchange, and talks regarding security in the Black Sea, which both parties presented as concessions. However, these issues align with longstanding Kremlin priorities.
Past agreements between Russia and Ukraine have involved refraining from energy infrastructure strikes, and Russia has routinely engaged in prisoner exchanges to repatriate soldiers. The Kremlin’s position on uninterrupted trade in the Black Sea remains critical for its economy.
Concerns are rising among Ukraine's allies that Putin may be stalling, adhering to his demands while hoping for a deterioration in U.S.-Ukraine relations or a potential collapse of Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. Putin reiterated his requirements for a comprehensive cease-fire during the call, which are likely unacceptable to Ukraine. He claimed that Ukraine had previously sabotaged agreements and accused it of committing terrorist acts in Russia's Kursk region.
By the next day, the Kremlin accused Kyiv of violating the ceasefire concerning energy infrastructure, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky not yet having been briefed on the call or agreeing to any terms.
Putin also emphasized a key condition for resolving the broader conflict: an end to external military and intelligence support for Ukraine. Analysts suggest that fulfilling this demand would render Ukraine vulnerable to Russia's military dominance and limit its sovereignty.
The Kremlin may be banking on negotiations leading to U.S. disengagement from Ukraine, allowing Putin to continue his military efforts while simultaneously improving relations with the U.S. Analysts note that Putin could exploit the current political climate in Washington, where a lack of enthusiasm for Ukraine exists, and capitalize on Ukraine's precarious situation on the battlefield.
Experts point out that Russia's strategy may involve prolonging negotiations to undermine Ukraine's position. The Trump administration's desire for a swift resolution could inadvertently benefit Moscow, which is under no time constraints.
While the Trump administration has occasionally threatened to apply pressure on Russia, it may also consider offering incentives. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, U.S. influence in Europe expanded as former Soviet allies joined NATO, a situation Putin aims to reverse through discussions with the Trump administration.
Russia has begun attempts to entice Washington with potential economic collaborations, including rare earth metal resources and energy sector investments. During the call, Putin and Trump discussed various areas for cooperation, which included plans for sports events involving American and Russian players.
Analysts suggest that the Kremlin seeks to rebuild ties with the U.S. without requiring a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. They believe Russian officials have a keen understanding of Trump's preferences and vulnerabilities, positioning them advantageously in the ongoing dialogue.