The Trump administration is engaging in discussions with Moscow regarding the potential readmission of numerous Russian diplomats to the United States, following years of diplomatic expulsions. This initiative is seen as a goodwill gesture that could be reciprocated by Russia, although experts caution that it may allow the Kremlin to send spies disguised as diplomats, thereby enhancing its espionage capabilities in the U.S.
U.S. and Russian officials convened in Istanbul last month to explore the possibility of restoring diplomatic personnel after a prolonged period of mutual expulsions and the closure of diplomatic facilities. These midlevel talks, part of a broader effort to improve relations between the two nations under President Trump, were held at the U.S. consul's residence.
In a related meeting in Riyadh, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior Russian officials discussed measures to ensure the functionality of their diplomatic missions, with both sides expressing hope that this could lead to a more comprehensive peace agreement regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
While an agreement to normalize diplomatic operations could facilitate U.S. espionage activities in Russia, experts warn that any increase in Russian diplomatic personnel in the U.S. would likely favor Russian intelligence operations, given the more open nature of American society compared to the restrictive environment in Russia.
The Trump administration's recent appointments of officials sympathetic to Moscow have raised concerns about the future of U.S. counterintelligence efforts against Russia. Intelligence experts suggest that the Kremlin's espionage activities have become increasingly aggressive, with recent plots including attempts to place incendiary devices on cargo planes in Europe and to assassinate individuals linked to Ukraine.
Historically, the U.S. has expelled over 100 Russian diplomats accused of espionage and closed several Russian diplomatic facilities. Currently, the number of U.S. diplomats in Russia has decreased significantly, from over 1,200 to approximately 120, while around 220 Russian diplomats remain in the U.S.
Both governments have expressed frustration over the challenges of conducting routine diplomatic work, such as processing visas and assisting citizens. The two sides have identified initial steps toward reestablishing their diplomatic missions and plan to meet again soon.
Experts caution that if diplomatic ranks are expanded, Russian operatives may have a significant advantage in conducting espionage activities in the U.S. compared to American officials in Russia, who face constant surveillance and restrictions.
The deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations has been marked by a series of expulsions and retaliatory actions following incidents such as the interference in the 2016 presidential election and the poisoning of a former Russian spy in the U.K. The Biden administration has continued this trend, expelling additional Russian diplomats in response to cyberattacks and the invasion of Ukraine.
As discussions progress, experts recommend that the U.S. proceed cautiously, ensuring strict reciprocity and avoiding immediate full staffing of diplomatic positions. Vigilance is essential, as the Kremlin may seek to exploit any new opportunities presented by expanded diplomatic relations.