Officials in the Philippines have conveyed a clear distinction from Ukraine, asserting confidence in their support from the United States amidst President Trump's volatile foreign policy, particularly following his recent conflict with Ukraine’s leadership. This assurance is rooted in shared concerns over China, which both Washington and Manila view as a common adversary.
As the U.S. engages in a trade confrontation with China, the Philippines faces increasing tensions related to territorial claims in the South China Sea. Manila relies on a mutual defense treaty with the United States as a primary safeguard against potential aggression from China. Recently, Washington reinstated approximately $400 million in military aid to the Philippines, previously suspended under Trump’s foreign aid freeze, serving as a reaffirmation of their partnership.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. has expressed optimism regarding U.S. commitments, noting discussions with Trump administration officials that reaffirm the strength of the bilateral relationship. Despite uncertainty surrounding Trump’s broader international strategies, officials in the Philippines remain assured of continual U.S. support.
Concerns about potential U.S. withdrawal from the South China Sea are prevalent, particularly among figures like former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, who emphasizes the need for preparedness against such eventualities. Beijing's expansive claims over approximately 90 percent of the South China Sea have led to increasing confrontations with Manila, particularly regarding access to fishing and energy resources within its exclusive economic zone.
President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. has strengthened ties with the U.S., shifting away from a previous alignment with China, and has facilitated expanded access for U.S. military forces in the Philippines. Notably, the U.S. deployed a missile system called Typhon as part of joint military exercises, enhancing deterrence capabilities in the region.
Maintaining freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is essential for U.S. interests, amid concerns over China’s military expansions in the area. Jonathan Malaya of the Philippines’ National Security Council has asserted that Trump is unlikely to withdraw from the region, highlighting the strategic importance of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Despite significant U.S. aid to Ukraine, Malaya pointed out that American financial commitments to the Philippines are considerably lesser. Additionally, past communications between Trump and Philippine officials indicate a focus on bolstering personal relationships, with potential future meetings on the agenda.
In a strategic shift, the Philippines has begun diversifying its defense partnerships, formalizing agreements with Japan and New Zealand, and increasing its defense budget by 14 percent this year. The government is considering acquiring the Typhon missile system from the U.S., a move that has drawn criticism from Beijing, labeling it a "substantial threat to peace and security."
Experts suggest that Trump’s relationship with China will significantly influence U.S. policy towards the Philippines, with experts noting the unpredictability of the current geopolitical environment. The implications of these dynamics remain a focal point for regional security and diplomacy moving forward.