Hours after Israel initiated a significant bombing campaign across Gaza on Tuesday, Hamas’s military wing did not show a noticeable counterattack. This day marked the deadliest since a cease-fire began approximately two months ago, with the Gaza health ministry reporting over 400 fatalities resulting from the aerial strikes that commenced before dawn.
Throughout the day, there was a marked absence of rocket fire from Palestinian militants or attempts to ambush Israeli soldiers. Suhail al-Hindi, a Hamas official, expressed hope for restoring the cease-fire while asserting the group's right to respond, stating, “How to respond is left to those on the ground.”
Israel's ongoing 15-month conflict with Hamas has significantly weakened the group, resulting in the deaths of thousands of fighters and the destruction of much of its tunnel network. This has adversely affected Hamas's capacity to launch rocket attacks against Israel.
Al-Hindi acknowledged the degradation of Palestinian militant capabilities due to the war but insisted they still possess the will and desire to resist. He emphasized that the issue lies not in equipment but in the resolve to resist the occupation.
In the past two months, Hamas has reportedly been regrouping since the cease-fire, collecting unexploded bombs and repurposing them into improvised explosive devices. Additionally, the group has been recruiting new members and replacing lost commanders, according to a member of the Qassam Brigades, who spoke anonymously.
Recent communications from seven members of the Israeli parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee revealed that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad maintain over 25,000 and 5,000 fighters, respectively, within Gaza. Ibrahim Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst with ties to Hamas, stated that the Qassam Brigades remain capable of confronting the Israeli occupation.
The absence of military response from Hamas may indicate a strategy to prepare for potential Israeli ground invasions, according to Madhoun. The Israeli military has indicated that its attacks target Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, focusing on fighters, missile launch sites, and weapons stockpiles, with Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani describing the operations as “pre-emptive” following intelligence of planned attacks by Hamas.
Contrastingly, the Israeli prime minister’s office highlighted Hamas's refusal to accept cease-fire proposals without mentioning any plans for attacks by the group. Hamas has denied allegations of planning attacks, calling the Israeli claims “baseless” and a pretext for resuming hostilities.
The Israeli bombardment came after weeks of failed negotiations aimed at extending the cease-fire. Madhoun stated that despite the intensity of the attacks, Hamas would not yield to Israeli demands to relinquish its role in Gaza or release hostages without assurances of a permanent end to the war.
Israel remains committed to preventing Hamas from governing Gaza and ensuring that it cannot launch future attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the dismantling of Hamas's government and military wing is essential for ending the conflict, a sentiment echoed by his right-wing coalition partners.
While Hamas has indicated a willingness to relinquish civilian governance, it firmly rejects disbanding its military wing, which is crucial to its power in the region. During the cease-fire's initial phase, the group attempted to demonstrate its strength by orchestrating theatrical ceremonies when transferring hostages to the Red Cross.
Michael Milstein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, suggested that Hamas may be assessing whether Israel plans a long-term operation or a limited strike before deciding how to respond. He noted, “They want to know where things are going,” indicating that Hamas may conserve its resources based on the duration of the conflict.