On the eve of President Trump’s deadline to impose tariffs on Mexico, a notable decline in migrant presence is evident along the Mexican border. Previously bustling areas such as Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, and Matamoros now feature shelters that accommodate only a few families, with parks and vacant buildings largely empty.
At the border, remnants of migrant camps, including discarded clothing and personal items, remain, but the flow of migrants has significantly diminished. Rev. William Morton, a missionary in Ciudad Juárez, remarked, “Nobody can cross.”
Last week, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security reported that Customs and Border Protection apprehended only 200 individuals at the southern border, marking the lowest single-day figure in over 15 years. President Trump has attributed this decline to his administration's stringent immigration policies, while also announcing the deployment of additional combat forces to the border.
Analysts suggest that Mexico's own measures to limit migration have played a crucial role in this decrease. The Mexican government has implemented various strategies, including establishing checkpoints, imposing visa restrictions, and dispersing migrant caravans, which have collectively reduced the number of individuals reaching the U.S. border.
Since last spring, Mexican authorities have apprehended more migrants than their American counterparts monthly, leading to a reported 90 percent decline in migrant flows, according to Enrique Serrano Escobar, head of the Chihuahua State office for migrants.
In border cities, shelters are witnessing a stark reduction in occupancy, with many tables and bunk beds remaining unused. Some migrants have opted to wait for asylum appointments through the CBP One application, which was canceled by Trump on his first day in office, prompting many to abandon their plans and return south.
In Tijuana, the Foundation Youth Movement 2000 shelter, which once housed hundreds, now accommodates only 55 individuals, primarily those who have been there since Trump’s inauguration. The remaining migrants include individuals from various Central and South American countries, as well as Mexican nationals from dangerous regions.
In response to Trump’s demands, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 national guardsmen to the border. However, opinions are divided on the effectiveness of this military presence in curbing illegal crossings. While some believe it serves as a deterrent, others note that migrants are adapting by seeking alternative routes.
In Ciudad Juárez, national guardsmen have increased inspections and searches for border tunnels, but the focus on stopping fentanyl trafficking has raised concerns about the impact on migrants. Many migrants are now considering their options, with some requesting deportation back to their home countries.
The current migrant population at the U.S. border largely consists of individuals unable to return to their countries. Rev. Francisco González, who oversees a network of shelters in Juárez, reported a decrease in overall shelter occupancy, with many migrants opting to apply for asylum in Mexico due to fears of deportation.
As shelters continue to close, the number of operational facilities in Ciudad Juárez has decreased from 34 in November to 29 recently. Shelter operators are facing challenges due to reduced international support, leaving many migrants in a state of uncertainty.