The leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda have called for a cease-fire in eastern Congo in an effort to end the ongoing conflict that has persisted for three decades.
This announcement followed an unannounced meeting in Qatar on Tuesday, with analysts suggesting it could either indicate a de-escalation in the conflict or represent another failed attempt at achieving peace in the region.
Presidents Félix Tshisekedi of Congo and Paul Kagame of Rwanda committed to an “immediate and unconditional cease-fire,” as stated in a joint declaration issued alongside Qatar. However, the statement did not specify how the cease-fire would be implemented or monitored.
The meeting marks a significant development since the Rwanda-backed armed group, M23, captured eastern Congo’s two largest cities and extensive territory in an offensive that began in January.
Oluwole Ojewale, a scholar with the Institute for Security Studies, noted that this is the first time both leaders have made a concrete statement regarding the conflict.
The fighting has resulted in the displacement of over 700,000 people since January and has caused thousands of fatalities, according to the United Nations refugee agency.
This meeting occurred a day after the European Union imposed sanctions on Rwandan government and military officials for their support of M23. In response, Rwanda severed diplomatic ties with Belgium, which has advocated for sanctions against Rwanda due to its involvement in the conflict.
Tshisekedi and Kagame expressed their intention to “establish solid foundations for lasting peace” in eastern Congo, a region plagued by ethnic tensions and land disputes that have resulted in millions of deaths over the past three decades.
Previous cease-fire attempts have failed, often due to violations or last-minute withdrawals from negotiations, including a scheduled meeting between Congo’s government and M23 leadership that was canceled.
M23 announced it would not attend the planned meeting in Angola, prompting the leaders to convene in Qatar, a close ally of Rwanda.
Experts suggest that Congo may have recognized the need for concessions in negotiations. M23, formed in 2012, is reportedly armed and commanded by Rwanda’s army, a claim that Rwanda denies, asserting that the violence in Congo poses a threat to its security.
The group currently controls a Congolese territory rich in resources, including gold and coltan, covering an area comparable to Louisiana, which includes the cities of Goma and Bukavu.
It remains uncertain whether M23 will comply with the cease-fire calls, as the group has previously declared unilateral cease-fires only to violate them shortly thereafter.
Neither Congo’s military nor international pressure, including a unanimous condemnation from the U.N. Security Council, has succeeded in halting M23’s advances. Despite Western nations suspending development aid and some exports due to Rwanda’s involvement, the Rwandan government has maintained its stance.
Ojewale mentioned that the United States could have facilitated peace talks, but Qatar intervened as it was not a priority for the previous U.S. administration. Efforts by President Emmanuel Macron of France have also been unsuccessful.
Experts propose several potential options moving forward, including peace negotiations that could lead to a power-sharing agreement, greater autonomy for eastern Congo, integration of M23 fighters into the Congolese army, the establishment of a buffer zone, or even the annexation of the region by Rwanda.
Stearns indicated that while Rwanda faces international pressure, it remains in a strong position on the ground, suggesting that the current “no peace, no war” situation could persist for an extended period, which may be advantageous for Rwanda.