New intelligence regarding Iran's nuclear program has led U.S. officials to believe that a covert team of Iranian scientists is investigating a faster, albeit less sophisticated, method for developing an atomic weapon should Tehran's leadership decide to pursue a nuclear bomb, as reported by current and former officials.
This development occurs despite indications that Iran's new president is actively seeking negotiations with the U.S. administration.
The intelligence was gathered during the final months of the Biden administration and was communicated to President Trump's national security team during the transition period. Officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive information, indicated that the assessment warned Iranian weapons engineers were seeking a shortcut that could enable them to convert their increasing stockpile of nuclear fuel into a functional weapon in a matter of months, should Tehran choose to alter its current strategy.
Officials maintain that Iran and its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have not yet made that critical decision to develop a nuclear weapon. However, new intelligence suggests that as Iranian proxy forces have been diminished and their missile capabilities have struggled against U.S. and Israeli defenses, military leadership is actively considering new options to deter potential attacks from the U.S. or Israel.
U.S. officials ascertain that Iran remains at the nuclear threshold. Since the withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord, Iran has resumed uranium production and possesses sufficient fuel for the creation of four or more atomic bombs. Nevertheless, this fuel alone is inadequate for constructing a weapon; the new intelligence focuses on the final steps needed to convert the fuel into a nuclear weapon.
This evidence is expected to be a topic of discussion during President Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is the first world leader to visit the White House following Trump's inauguration. Historically, the Israeli leader has considered military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities but has often retreated due to pressure from military and intelligence officials, as well as from the U.S.
However, circumstances may have shifted, and Netanyahu's assessments could be different now.
Officials assert that Iran's current vulnerabilities are greater than ever. Iranian-backed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered significant losses, impacting their capacity to strike Israel. Additionally, Syria's leader, Bashar al-Assad, has sought refuge in Moscow, complicating Iran's supply routes for weaponry.
In an Israeli counterstrike earlier this year, missile defenses around Tehran and several nuclear sites were targeted, severely disrupting Iran's missile production capabilities.
President Trump has expressed a preference for avoiding direct conflict with Iran and appears open to negotiation. When questioned shortly after his inauguration regarding support for an Israeli strike on Iranian facilities, he suggested that a resolution could ideally be attained without such measures. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has also shown interest in negotiations since taking office.
However, experts suggest that Pezeshkian may not be fully aware of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' nuclear plans, given the regime's dual structure where military and intelligence factions operate separately from diplomatic channels.
U.S. officials have long maintained that Iran abandoned its weapons program in 2003, while Iranian officials insist they pursue civilian nuclear technology. Nonetheless, there is substantial evidence of Iran's long-standing intention to develop a nuclear weapon, particularly highlighted by documents retrieved from a Tehran warehouse in 2018 that detailed these technical efforts.
If Tehran opts to change its policy and pursue a nuclear arsenal, it has been assessed that Iran could quickly enrich uranium to the 90% purity level necessary for bomb production. However, transforming that enriched uranium into a deployable warhead has historically been estimated to require one to two years of development.
The Iranians have consistently recognized the lengthy weapon development timeline as a significant vulnerability. Should the International Atomic Energy Agency report that Iran is producing bomb-grade fuel, past warnings indicate that military action from the U.S. and Israel would be a likely response.
Consequently, Iran's most effective deterrent may lie in rapidly converting fuel into an operational weapon, despite the short time frame available for such an endeavor.
U.S. officials believe Iran possesses the capability to construct an older-style nuclear weapon, which could be assembled more swiftly than sophisticated designs. While such a device may be less reliable and cannot be miniaturized for ballistic missile use, its rapid development would allow Iran to assert its status as a nuclear power, potentially deterring aggression from other nations against its territory.