In his first term, President Trump intermittently threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO, jeopardizing the integrity of the alliance. In his second term, he has adopted a strategy that appears to undermine NATO from within.
Trump's recent decision to reverse years of consensus in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, combined with his overtures for negotiations with President Vladimir Putin, has raised alarm among NATO leaders. They are now questioning the reliability of U.S. support in the event of an attack on an alliance member.
A senior German government official, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, expressed concern that Trump has diminished trust in the foundational principle of collective defense, which posits that an attack on one member requires a response from all.
This apprehension intensified following Trump's alignment with Putin's narrative, which inaccurately portrays Ukraine as the aggressor. This revisionist stance has left NATO allies in disbelief regarding their alliance with the U.S.
European officials had anticipated challenges to the post-World War II order upon Trump’s election. They were particularly unsettled by his remarks during the campaign suggesting a lack of support for NATO members he deemed insufficient contributors. While the United States remains a nuclear power within NATO, officials warned that Trump’s rhetoric could erode the alliance from inside.
The current unraveling of NATO is occurring amid a crisis in European leadership. Trump’s imposition of tariffs without distinction between allies and adversaries initially seemed harmful yet manageable.
During the conference, Vice President JD Vance’s apparent endorsement of the far-right Alternative for Germany party provoked criticism from German officials, highlighting ongoing tensions regarding Trump’s foreign policy direction.
In Munich, few European leaders were prepared for the possibility that Trump might threaten U.S. support for Ukraine or embrace Putin's narrative. The U.S. was also pushing for a significantly pared-down joint statement from the Group of 7 nations to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, which would have reduced condemnation of Russia’s actions significantly compared to previous statements.
Speculation among European officials suggests that a significant reduction in American military presence in Europe may be imminent, following vague comments from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. This has sparked concerns regarding the potential for vulnerabilities in European defenses.
Some interpret Trump’s approach as a prompt for European nations to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. However, this aligns with longstanding Russian demands for reduced U.S. military presence in Europe.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing the conference, called for the establishment of an independent European army. Despite the mixed reactions to his suggestions, his core concern regarding European defense capabilities resonated among some European officials.
Many security officials believe that Europe is ill-prepared for self-defense in the absence of U.S. support. Prior initiatives to transition defense roles from American forces to European allies were intended to be gradual to prevent security gaps.
After the Cold War, many European nations scaled back their military capabilities, operating under the assumption that large-scale conflict in Europe was improbable. While independent nuclear forces exist in Britain and France, they are significantly smaller than the arsenals of the U.S. and Russia.
Some European leaders now acknowledge that the continent has been slow to react to U.S. calls for increased defense spending. Concerns about European military preparedness have persisted since before Trump’s presidency.
In a 2011 address, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned that American support for European defense would decline if NATO allies continued to underinvest in their militaries. His warnings were unheeded until Russia’s annexation of Crimea was followed by a reassessment of European security.
Germany and other NATO members have since begun increasing defense production and military spending, but significant challenges remain as they prepare for an uncertain future in the face of potential reductions in U.S. military presence.
As NATO faces unprecedented challenges, experts emphasize that the capability and readiness of European nations to independently defend themselves is about to be rigorously tested.