A delegation of Russian diplomats arrived in Damascus last Tuesday to discuss the future of Russia's military presence in Syria, following the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad, whom Russia had supported for years. The meeting marked the first direct negotiations between Moscow and the new interim leadership in Syria, led by Ahmed al-Shara, since the end of the civil war.
The talks concluded without a resolution, indicating the complexity of negotiations regarding Russia's role in postwar Syria, especially after its failed attempt to maintain Assad in power. Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, noted that the current atmosphere in Damascus emphasizes de-escalation and pragmatism, as the new leadership seeks legitimacy and stability.
Al-Shara highlighted the need for any new relations with Russia to address past grievances, requesting compensation for the destruction caused by Russian airstrikes and the extradition of Assad and his associates for justice. However, it is unlikely that President Vladimir Putin would agree to such demands.
Despite the contentious history, al-Shara expressed a willingness to cooperate with Russia, acknowledging its long-standing military support. Analysts suggest that the new Syrian authorities are desperate for international legitimacy and support, making it crucial for Russia to avoid obstructing Syria's reconstruction efforts.
The meeting was attended by Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, but no immediate decisions were made. The future of Russia's military bases in Syria remains uncertain, as both sides appear to benefit from delaying negotiations on this issue.
Russia aims to retain its naval base at Tartus and the Hmeimim Air Base, essential for its military operations in the region. Meanwhile, al-Shara needs relief from U.S. sanctions and support for Syria's recovery, complicating the negotiations further.
As the new Syrian leadership seeks to consolidate power and establish legitimacy, they face the challenge of dealing with Russia while managing the remnants of the Assad regime. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional geopolitics and international relations.