Germany is preparing for a transition of leadership as its current chancellor exits power, although his party is expected to remain in a reduced capacity. The recent election, held months earlier than anticipated due to the collapse of the governing coalition, brought unexpected results and heightened suspense.
Preliminary results suggest that the center-right Christian Democrats are poised to lead Germany with just one coalition partner, indicating a shift back towards a more stable two-party government model that has been prevalent in the country for most of the century.
Friedrich Merz is likely to become the new chancellor, following the largest voter turnout in decades that favored the Christian Democrats and their sister party, the Christian Social Union. Merz, a businessman with aspirations for leadership, previously lost a power struggle to Angela Merkel, who served as chancellor for 16 years. Discontent with Merkel's legacy, particularly regarding her energy policies and the 2015 refugee crisis, has influenced voter sentiment.
Since taking the helm of the Christian Democrats after their defeat in 2021, Merz has shifted the party right on issues such as migration, while focusing his campaign on economic revival through reduced regulations and lower taxes. Despite his long-desired position, Merz's approval ratings remain lukewarm, with only a third of the electorate confident in his potential as chancellor.
The U.S. administration, particularly under President Trump, played a significant role in the election's discourse. Recent remarks by Vice President JD Vance underscored concerns among German voters about American political dynamics and NATO's future, with a notable 65 percent expressing worries about Germany's security in light of U.S.-Russia relations.
The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) experienced a boost, doubling its vote share from the previous election primarily due to its anti-immigration stance. Despite some expectations for greater support following endorsements from Trump allies, the AfD's performance appeared to fall short of earlier polling predictions, inadvertently benefitting the leftist party, Die Linke, amid public reaction against recent violence attributed to migrants.
Surprisingly, Die Linke, previously struggling at 3 percent, made a significant resurgence to nearly 9 percent of the vote, attributed to charismatic new leadership and disenchantment among younger voters with mainstream parties. Their events became popular, combining political engagement with cultural appeal, aided by social media influence.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party performed poorly, securing a record low of 16 percent and finishing in third place. Although he will serve as a caretaker chancellor for now, he is anticipated to step away from active politics. His party is expected to play a junior coalition role in a government likely led by conservatives, reminiscent of past grand coalitions during Merkel's tenure.