In July 2021, King Abdullah II of Jordan met with President Joseph R. Biden Jr., receiving a warm welcome as a trusted American ally and a key player in Middle Eastern security. During their discussion in the Oval Office, President Biden acknowledged the challenges of the region.
As King Abdullah prepares to meet with President Trump, the political landscape in Washington appears more challenging. President Trump has expressed intentions to expel Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, suggesting that he might reduce aid to Jordan and Egypt if they do not accept approximately 1.9 million Palestinians from Gaza. Both Jordan and Egypt have firmly rejected this proposal.
This situation places King Abdullah in a difficult position, as rejecting Trump's demands could jeopardize the over $1.5 billion in annual foreign aid Jordan receives from the United States, alongside a classified stream of funds for Jordan's intelligence services.
Moreover, more than half of Jordan's population of around 12 million is of Palestinian descent. Middle East experts indicate that King Abdullah's rule may depend on his opposition to Trump's plan, with analysts stating that he cannot afford to be seen as complicit in the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians.
During his meeting with Trump, King Abdullah is also expected to advocate against any Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank, a move that could incite violence and unrest spilling into Jordan, given the West Bank's proximity to its border. Jordan currently hosts around 700,000 refugees, primarily from Syria.
Unlike some oil-rich neighbors, Jordan relies heavily on American aid. King Abdullah has cultivated strong ties with the U.S. government, often being the first Arab leader to meet new presidents. Jordan provides access to U.S. military bases and has received substantial support for its intelligence services since the reign of King Abdullah's father, King Hussein.
Currently, American aid to Jordan, including military assistance, is frozen due to the Trump administration's halt on foreign assistance, with the U.S.A.I.D. office in Jordan being closed.
Having ascended to the throne in 1999, King Abdullah is the longest-serving leader in the Middle East. Analysts suggest he will leverage his relationships with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies to advise against Trump's Gaza plans, which are viewed as detrimental.
Despite potential support from U.S. lawmakers, King Abdullah may need to seek new allies if Trump cuts funding in response to Jordan's refusal to comply with his Gaza strategy. Wealthy Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which oppose Trump's plans, could become alternative sources of support.
Experts believe that Trump's overarching goal in the Middle East involves securing a deal that would lead to Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel. However, the Saudi government has stated that progress towards an independent Palestinian state is necessary before considering normalization of relations with Israel.
This context may provide King Abdullah with some leverage, as he attempts to persuade the unpredictable American president to focus on broader regional goals, emphasizing Jordan's importance in achieving them.