Israel has announced its intention to maintain a presence in several positions in southern Lebanon, as the deadline for withdrawal by both Israeli military and Hezbollah forces passed on Tuesday. This decision raises concerns that a prolonged Israeli presence could jeopardize the fragile truce established after a cease-fire in November, which ended a significant conflict between the two parties.
Initially, both the Israeli military and Hezbollah were expected to relinquish control of southern Lebanon to the Lebanese military by the end of January. However, following incidents of violence at the border, the deadline was extended to February 18.
On Monday, Israeli officials stated that their forces would temporarily remain at five “strategic” locations just over the border until the Lebanese military fully implements the terms of the agreement. The duration of this presence has not been specified.
This development could lead to renewed violence, with many Lebanese residents still unable to return to their homes in the affected areas, amid ongoing warnings from the Israeli military.
Under the cease-fire terms, Hezbollah is also required to withdraw from southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese military expected to deploy there in significant numbers. Israeli officials have accused Hezbollah of failing to meet its obligations. Although a U.S.-led monitoring committee has commended the Lebanese military's deployment, it has not publicly disclosed information regarding Hezbollah's withdrawal of weapons and personnel.
Last month, Israeli forces reportedly killed over two dozen individuals while attempting to enter southern border towns. The Israeli military stated that it fired warning shots to mitigate perceived threats.
In a recent speech, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem strongly opposed Israel's decision to remain in southern Lebanon, as communicated to the Lebanese government by U.S. officials. He emphasized that Israel must withdraw completely by February 18, asserting, “This is the agreement.” However, he refrained from promising to escalate attacks against Israel.
Despite their objections, both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government lack the means to compel Israel to withdraw. Lebanon's new leadership has sought support from Arab neighbors and the United States to pressure Israel, but their influence is considered limited. Experts suggest that Hezbollah, weakened by the prolonged conflict with Israel, is unlikely to provoke another confrontation in the near future.
Nonetheless, should Israel maintain its presence indefinitely in Lebanon, it could potentially bolster Hezbollah's position in the long term. Paul Salem, a regional expert, remarked that Israel's continued presence would provide Hezbollah with a narrative that armed resistance is necessary, as diplomacy has failed to end the occupation.
Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun, has committed to consolidating all arms under state control, presenting a challenge to Hezbollah's longstanding dominance. The effectiveness of this initiative remains uncertain.
The Lebanese military has advised civilians to avoid southern towns until military deployment is complete. It has accused Israel of employing a scorched-earth strategy in recent weeks, including the destruction and arson of homes during its withdrawal from various locations. The Israeli military has not responded to these allegations.
Israel's decision to remain in Lebanon coincides with rising tensions in the region. Following Israeli accusations that Iran has been providing financial support to Hezbollah via Beirut's airport, Lebanese authorities canceled flights from Iran last week. In response, thousands of Hezbollah supporters blocked roads leading to the country's only airport, and a United Nations convoy near the airport was attacked.
These violent protests represent a significant challenge for Lebanon's new leadership as they attempt to mitigate Hezbollah's considerable influence in the country.
Additionally, the Israeli military has reportedly intensified its operations in Lebanon leading up to the withdrawal deadline. On Monday, it announced the targeting and killing of a Hamas commander in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, located more than 20 miles from the Israeli border.