The future of the cease-fire in Gaza and the territory’s long-term fate remains uncertain as President Trump prepares to meet with King Abdullah II of Jordan. This comes amidst escalating tensions between the American leader and Hamas.
President Trump has proposed a plan to take control of Gaza, which includes the expulsion of Palestinians to neighboring countries, including Jordan. He has warned that he will terminate American financial support for Jordan if the king does not accept this vision.
The ongoing dispute is one of several factors threatening the fragile truce between Hamas and Israel. Hamas issued a warning on Monday night, threatening to postpone the release of hostages scheduled for Saturday unless Israel increases its aid to Gaza.
In response, Trump stated he would unleash “all hell” if every hostage was not released by the weekend. Hamas later moderated its stance, while Trump added a note suggesting that his warning was more of a negotiation tactic than an ultimatum.
Analysts believe that while the immediate crisis may be resolved shortly, a significant challenge looms in March when the cease-fire is set to expire unless an agreement is reached between Hamas and Israel.
According to Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a political research group, “It’s likely that they will reach a compromise before Saturday. But this crisis is a prelude for a much bigger crisis that is coming in early March.”
All major stakeholders have made negotiations increasingly difficult. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has delayed discussions, expressing concern that extending the cease-fire would allow Hamas to maintain its military dominance in Gaza.
While Hamas has expressed a nominal willingness to share authority with other Palestinian factions, it has shown no intention of disarming. Furthermore, Trump’s suggestions of forcibly relocating Gaza residents have incited anger from Hamas and exacerbated the chaotic atmosphere around the negotiations.
Trump has consistently advocated for the U.S. to occupy and rebuild Gaza, threatening to cut off financial aid to Egypt and Jordan if they do not accommodate displaced Palestinians. This potential forced migration could destabilize both nations, and King Abdullah is anticipated to propose alternatives during his meeting with Trump.
Analysts are divided on the seriousness of Trump’s proposals, but the tensions underscore increasing unpredictability regarding Gaza's future.
The current stalemate partly derives from Hamas's claims that Israel has not fulfilled its obligations under the cease-fire's first phase, specifically regarding the delivery of hundreds of thousands of tents to Gaza. Hamas asserts that Israel has not adhered to this commitment.
Israeli officials and mediators acknowledged the validity of Hamas's claims, although COGAT, the Israeli military unit managing aid deliveries, refuted these allegations, stating that significant amounts of aid have been provided as stipulated in the agreement.
Despite this, experts suggest that the issue could be addressed easily if Israel permits increased aid to Gaza. A more pressing concern remains the perception that Netanyahu is hindering negotiations aimed at extending the cease-fire.
Netanyahu delayed sending a delegation to Qatar, which is facilitating talks, until early this week. The resulting delegation consisted of officials who have not previously led negotiations, with a mandate limited to listening rather than negotiating, fostering the impression that Netanyahu is stalling for time.
In response to inquiries, a spokesman for Netanyahu confirmed that the prime minister is committed to securing the release of all hostages held by Hamas, adding that negotiations regarding the extension of the cease-fire would commence once a cabinet decision has been made.
Netanyahu has consistently asserted that Hamas will not retain power following the conflict, despite strong public support for extending the truce to secure the release of more hostages, even if it means leaving Hamas in control.
A Hamas official indicated that their recent warning was linked solely to disputes over humanitarian aid, but analysts interpret it as an effort to compel Netanyahu to engage seriously in negotiations and as a reaction to Trump’s remarks about displacing Gaza's population.
Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst of Palestinian affairs, noted that there is significant frustration within Hamas concerning the demands made by both Netanyahu and Trump. He commented, “The announcement yesterday was a kind of signal that, if you continue demanding this, there will be several dramatic crises.”