Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago prompted European leaders to increase defense spending. On Monday, leaders from the European Union and Britain convened in Brussels to discuss funding strategies for enhanced military capabilities.
This discussion is particularly pressing in light of former President Trump’s potential return to the White House, as he has indicated plans to withdraw U.S. financial and military support for Ukraine, shifting the responsibility to European nations. Trump has also called for NATO allies to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their annual economic output, significantly higher than current goals of 3 to 3.5 percent set for the upcoming NATO summit.
The U.S. currently allocates approximately 3.4 percent of its gross domestic product to defense. In response to the ongoing conflict, the European Union, originally founded on principles of free trade, is now focusing on deterrence and defense, working to enhance its military industries and improve spending efficiency. The meeting marks the first time a British leader, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has engaged with the 27 EU leaders since the UK's exit from the bloc.
One key topic of discussion is whether the EU can generate additional funding for defense through common debt, similar to measures taken during the Covid pandemic. However, this approach may complicate individual NATO member states' efforts to meet specific military budget requirements, as 23 of the 27 EU countries are also NATO members.
NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, General Christopher G. Cavoli, has established capability targets for member nations for the first time since the Cold War, detailing specific equipment and force level requirements in the event of a Russian invasion.
Officials and analysts agree that Europe currently lacks essential defense components, including integrated air and missile defense systems, long-range precision artillery, and air-to-air refueling tankers, which are primarily provided by the U.S. Analysts estimate that replacing these systems could take Europe five to ten years.
European nations are also aiming to minimize duplication in military resources. For instance, Ukraine has received at least 17 different types of howitzers, which do not all utilize the same ammunition.
As Russia poses a threat from the East and U.S. support becomes uncertain, European leaders recognize the need for a coordinated plan to expand military resources. However, differing national interests and budget priorities present significant challenges in reshaping European defense.
During the summit, discussions will also cover Europe’s relationship with Washington, particularly in light of Trump’s demands, including his interest in acquiring Greenland, which is not for sale according to Danish and Greenlandic leaders.
The Greenland issue highlights the changing dynamics of U.S.-European relations, as Trump appears more inclined to exert pressure on allies rather than adversaries. Some European leaders express concern over the implications of this shift.
Despite the challenges, EU nations have increased military spending, with an estimated $340 billion allocated for defense in 2024, marking a 30 percent rise since 2021. Currently, at least 23 of NATO’s 32 members meet the 2 percent GDP defense spending guideline, with some leaders advocating for this to be a minimum standard.
European officials believe there is a limited window of opportunity, estimated at three to seven years, to bolster NATO’s defenses before Russia may consider testing the alliance again. However, achieving a coordinated and increased defense budget remains complex due to trust issues and national interests.
Potential funding solutions for joint procurement are under consideration, including a collective funding model similar to that used during the pandemic or financing through the European Investment Bank. A joint letter from 19 European countries has called for the bank to explore options for investment in the security and defense sector.
The inclusion of Britain in discussions is crucial, given its status as a nuclear power and member of the UN Security Council. Starmer’s participation underscores the importance of security cooperation as a means to strengthen post-Brexit ties between the UK and the EU.