Davos is approaching amid heightened anxieties in Europe regarding the impending inauguration of Donald J. Trump. Hubert Védrine, a former French foreign minister, likens Mr. Trump to an asteroid on a collision course with Earth, suggesting that discussions about his potential impact will dominate the annual gathering in the Swiss Alps.
Mr. Trump has made various statements regarding significant tariffs, territorial ambitions, and conditional American support for European defense, which includes demands for increased military spending by European nations and a reduction of their trade surplus with the United States.
Analysts, including Mr. Védrine, warn that while Mr. Trump often makes bold claims, he typically engages in bargaining, with issues and threats fluctuating over time. John Bolton, a former national security adviser, described the unpredictable nature of Mr. Trump’s administration as akin to living in a “pinball machine.”
A primary focus at Davos is expected to be the ongoing war in Ukraine. Mr. Trump has claimed he could resolve the conflict in a day, a notion largely dismissed by observers, including his adviser for Ukraine. Despite the rhetoric, Ukraine's situation continues to deteriorate, prompting discussions about potential negotiations to end the conflict, likely in the spring.
The terms of these negotiations remain uncertain. President Vladimir Putin of Russia, despite facing economic challenges, has committed to a wartime economy, framing the conflict as existential. Analysts note that Putin has a largely contract-based military force, allowing him to sustain high casualty rates.
Analysts argue that Putin perceives himself as winning the war and believes Western resolve to support Ukraine is weakening. Even if he were to agree to negotiations initiated by Mr. Trump, it is unlikely he would consent to an unconditional cease-fire, instead demanding stringent conditions.
During a recent press conference, Putin reiterated his view that Ukraine lacks true independence, stating that negotiations would reflect "current realities" and require Ukraine to abandon NATO aspirations and accept limitations on its military.
Norbert Röttgen, a foreign policy expert, emphasized that Putin's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, aiming to reshape European security and undermine NATO. He urged that the conflict must be made a failure for Russia, warning that any Russian success would send a dangerous message about the efficacy of warfare.
There is ongoing uncertainty about how to ensure Russia's failure without significantly increasing European military support for Ukraine. European leaders acknowledge the necessity of greater defense spending but are divided on the urgency of the Russian threat, compounded by their own economic challenges.
Mark Rutte, NATO's new secretary general, echoed the sentiment that Europe must enhance its defense capability to support Ukraine effectively. He plans to advocate for an increase in military spending at NATO's upcoming summit.
With Russia showing no signs of collapse, analysts contend that Europe must increase its deterrence and cooperation in defense matters. Röttgen stressed the importance of viewing the defense industry as a matter of security rather than mere economic interest.
Ukrainian officials are preparing for negotiations, with President Volodymyr Zelensky shifting focus from the complete restoration of Ukraine’s pre-war borders to seeking security guarantees post-conflict, emphasizing NATO membership as a priority.
However, many analysts doubt that NATO membership for Ukraine is feasible, suggesting that a significant push of support from the West could lead to more serious negotiations from Putin. Yet, the source of such support remains uncertain.
Some experts caution that while Ukraine is perceived as fighting a war for the West, the U.S. lacks a coherent strategy, which may jeopardize Ukraine's stability. The potential for Russia to withstand pressures while Ukraine struggles raises concerns about the latter’s sustainability.
The complex question of Ukraine’s future security remains unresolved. Discussions of possible NATO membership or partial security guarantees raise numerous logistical and strategic challenges, including the adequacy of European troop deployments and their implications for NATO's collective defense.
The prospect of European troops in Ukraine has faced skepticism, particularly from nations like Poland, which share borders with Russia. A senior German official warned that such discussions could be premature and play into Russia’s strategy to divide Europe and the U.S.
Röttgen emphasized that the war's significance lies in Ukraine's sovereignty, asserting that it must emerge as a viable state. However, the fundamental challenge remains ensuring that Ukraine will not be subject to future invasions.