At least three people were killed and over 40 injured by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon on Sunday, according to Lebanese officials. This incident occurred as the 60-day deadline for both Hezbollah and Israel to withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon expired, prompting thousands of displaced Lebanese to return to their homes.
The cease-fire agreement, signed in November, aimed to halt the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel and stipulated that both parties withdraw their forces, with the Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeepers deployed to ensure security. However, following the deadline, Israeli forces remained in parts of southern Lebanon, raising concerns about continued occupation and potential hostilities.
Israeli officials warned locals against returning home in several southern towns and villages. Avichai Adraee, the Israeli military's Arabic spokesman, issued social media alerts advising civilians regarding safe areas for return, stating that existing cautionary measures were still in effect.
According to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, the injured had attempted to enter their border villages amidst Israeli attacks. Despite warnings, residents from certain southern towns organized convoys to return home. The Lebanese military reported accompanying civilians in these operations and confirmed that a Lebanese soldier was among those killed.
The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the incidents. Israeli officials expressed concern over Hezbollah's activities in southern Lebanon and questioned the Lebanese Army's capacity to manage the situation.
Amidst the escalating tensions, Hezbollah's media platform urged residents to return to their homes, claiming their right to the land. In the town of Aita al-Shaab, many residents, including Mayor Mohamed Srour, returned to find their homes largely destroyed but expressed determination to rebuild.
This situation presents a significant challenge to Lebanon's new leaders, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, as they aim to regain political control from Hezbollah and establish a functioning state. President Aoun emphasized the importance of national sovereignty amidst calls for restraint.
The potential for prolonged Israeli occupation could reinvigorate Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon. Analysts suggest that continued Israeli presence might undermine political efforts to consolidate military power within the state and diminish Hezbollah's justification for its arsenal.
Hezbollah did not respond to the allegations regarding its military activities but asserted its commitment to the truce. In contrast, Lebanese Army officials claimed delays in their deployment were caused by Israeli non-compliance.
The agreement aimed to restore peace following a year of conflict that began when Hezbollah launched rockets at Israeli positions in solidarity with Hamas, which attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel responded with targeted actions against Hezbollah and a military invasion of southern Lebanon.
Thousands of displaced individuals had begun to return home even before the deadline, despite receiving warnings from the Israeli military. Reports indicate that Israeli forces were actively blocking roads in southern Lebanon, with approximately 70% of areas occupied following their previous invasion.
Despite internal and external challenges including the recent election of a new Lebanese president and prime minister, experts caution against underestimating Hezbollah's political influence. They suggest that Israel’s continued presence could bolster support for Hezbollah among the Shiite population.
Overall, analysts believe that neither Israel nor Hezbollah has a vested interest in reigniting war, yet the situation remains volatile, with the potential for renewed conflict if Israeli occupation continues.