During a recent defense of his foreign policy legacy, President Biden urged President-elect Donald J. Trump to leverage the diplomatic and geopolitical opportunities created during Biden's term, particularly in countering actions by Russia and China, and addressing developments in the Middle East.
This sentiment was echoed by members of Biden's national security team in various interviews, asserting that America’s adversaries are currently struggling while its allies gain ground. They noted that Russia is increasingly isolated due to the Ukraine conflict, China faces economic challenges, and Iran is in a weakened position. Additionally, historic diplomatic efforts may lead to a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, with possible implications for the broader Middle East.
Critics from Trump’s camp depicted Biden's policies as failures, arguing that the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin, while Iran edges closer to nuclear capabilities. They believe a more assertive stance is necessary in dealing with China.
Among the diplomatic opportunities for Trump, negotiations with Russia over Ukraine seem particularly pressing. Although evidence suggests Putin is not eager for a deal to conclude the war, Trump has indicated his intention to seek a resolution quickly. Discussions imply any potential agreement would likely allow Russia to retain control over occupied regions of Ukraine, complicating the security guarantees necessary for any cease-fire.
In regard to Iran, recent developments may encourage Trump to negotiate over Tehran's nuclear program. The Biden administration has briefed Trump’s team about Iran’s nuclear capabilities and intentions, suggesting the country may have enough material for multiple weapons but has yet to decide to pursue them aggressively. Trump has indicated a return to his “maximum pressure” campaign could be anticipated, raising the possibility of military conflict depending on actions taken by regional allies like Israel.
Furthermore, the possibility of extending peace agreements beyond Israel to include Saudi Arabia and other nations looms large, especially under a Trump administration seeking to capitalize on the Abraham Accords initiated during his first term. However, accomplishing this will require a strategic approach and could lead to tensions with both internal political factions and international partners.
On the front of relations with China, the challenge will likely focus on issues such as the TikTok controversy and broader geopolitical tensions, including Taiwan and the strengthening partnership between China and Russia. The Biden administration's strategy aimed at countering this nexus suggests a complex backdrop for Trump’s engagement with China, which will include critical choices regarding technology policy and competition.
As Trump prepares to assume office, he faces a unique moment to influence U.S. foreign policy, navigating through intricate international relationships and addressing pressing global issues.