President Biden recently defended his foreign policy legacy, urging President-elect Donald J. Trump to leverage the diplomatic and geopolitical opportunities created during his administration to counter Russia and China and manage developments in the Middle East.
Biden's national security team has echoed this sentiment in various speeches and interviews, suggesting that they are leaving a world where America's adversaries are struggling while its allies hold an advantageous position. They argue that Russia is isolated due to its entanglement in Ukraine, China faces economic and demographic challenges, and Iran is at its weakest point. Following extensive diplomacy, a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas appears imminent, with potential hostages set for release, indicating a possibility for a restructured Middle East.
This assertion serves as a caution to Trump, essentially advising him not to squander the opportunities at hand. Conversely, Trump’s team contends that the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan showcased U.S. weakness, emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin, while suggesting that the Biden administration has neglected Iran, which is now nearing nuclear capability.
Despite differing perspectives, there are diplomatic opportunities for Trump to explore. However, historical precedents indicate that he might resort to military threats to achieve his objectives, as seen in his previous dealings with Iran and other nations.
In the context of Ukraine, Trump has promised a resolution to the conflict, claiming he could finalize a deal within 24 hours of taking office. Nevertheless, experts indicate that any agreement would likely see Russia maintaining control over occupied territories, complicating a sustainable peace agreement.
Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, argues that the current administration has laid the groundwork for a security framework to deter future Russian aggression. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains skeptical and insists that NATO membership is essential for Ukraine's security.
In terms of Iran, recent developments suggest that Trump may face opportunities or challenges regarding Tehran's nuclear program. Iran is currently perceived as weakened, losing influence in the region, yet it is reportedly enhancing its uranium production capabilities. Trump has previously indicated a desire to revive his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, raising the possibility of military action should tensions escalate.
Furthermore, Trump could seek to solidify the Abraham Accords, which facilitated peace agreements between Israel and several Arab states. However, achieving broader regional stability would require a comprehensive strategy and substantial U.S. aid, potentially conflicting with isolationist sentiments within his political base.
On the front of U.S.-China relations, the TikTok controversy has emerged as a significant issue for the incoming administration. Trump’s approach to TikTok could reflect his broader strategy in dealing with China, including addressing Taiwan's status and the growing China-Russia partnership.
The evolving geopolitical landscape presents Trump with significant challenges as he navigates complex relationships with global powers, balancing national security interests with domestic political pressures.