In the upcoming presidential election in Belarus, scheduled for Sunday, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, is expected to secure an all-but-certain victory. His last election in 2020 was marked by widespread allegations of fraud and significant protests, leading to a harsh crackdown supported by Russia and subsequent Western sanctions.
This election features four state-approved candidates, all of whom are perceived as lacking genuine opposition and primarily expressing support for Lukashenko. Candidates who could challenge his authority have been jailed or forced into exile, and Lukashenko maintains control over the media and state power.
Katia Glod, a nonresident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, stated, “There is no genuine choice — all we have is this farcical facade of the candidates who all come from pro-government parties,” likening the situation to the political landscape in Russia.
Lukashenko has minimized his campaigning efforts, citing a busy schedule, and was recently seen demonstrating the use of a new Belarusian-made ax on state media. His confidence in winning another term aims to demonstrate control both to his country and to Russia, especially after the turmoil surrounding the 2020 election.
Belarus's geopolitical dynamics remain complicated, with Lukashenko being a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, he has also made gestures toward the West, including issuing pardons for some individuals jailed during the 2020 protests, possibly as a strategy to ease sanctions that have heavily impacted the Belarusian economy.
Despite these pardons, no major opposition leaders from 2020 have been released, and many opposition supporters have been imprisoned ahead of the election. The effectiveness of Lukashenko's approach to navigate between East and West remains uncertain.
While Lukashenko acknowledges the presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus and has indicated a willingness to host new Russian missile systems, he has resisted pressure to send troops to Ukraine. Analysts suggest that a reduction in Western sanctions could benefit Belarus's economy, particularly following sanctions on potash, a key economic sector.
As the election approaches, some analysts believe that the regime may monitor Western reactions to the election results, which could influence future political decisions, including the possible release of high-profile prisoners. However, there is skepticism about whether the West will adopt a neutral stance.
The electoral atmosphere contrasts sharply with the political mobilization seen in 2020, when a significant number of people protested against Lukashenko. The current election is characterized by the absence of credible opposition, with even state-approved candidates acknowledging the inevitability of Lukashenko's victory.
Opposition leaders in exile have called for Belarusians to disregard the election or vote for “none of the above” as a form of protest. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a prominent opposition figure, described the election as a “farce” lacking transparency and genuine democratic processes.
Lukashenko continues to position himself as a stabilizing force against chaos, claiming he does not cling to power, yet there are no indications of his impending resignation. He has also restricted remote voting, disenfranchising many Belarusians living abroad.
Exiled Belarusians express a desire for change but remain pessimistic about the political landscape, with some feeling they may face years more under Lukashenko's regime. Despite some positive perceptions surrounding recent pardons, many, including Tikhanovskaya, view them as insincere and indicative of ongoing repression rather than genuine policy shifts.