Likelihood of Gaza Cease-Fire Before Trump's Inauguration Appears Remote


Talks between Israel and Hamas aimed at ending the war in Gaza and securing the release of remaining hostages have reportedly made little progress, according to officials familiar with the discussions. As the Biden administration nears its final days, the urgency to reach a cease-fire agreement has intensified.

Despite ongoing mediation efforts, Israel has continued its military campaign in Gaza. In December, both Israeli and Hamas officials indicated some progress towards a deal, but they subsequently blamed each other for new obstacles that emerged.

Significant gaps remain in the negotiations, and the future of the talks is uncertain. Qatar and Egypt have been leading the mediation efforts, with support from the United States.

On Thursday night, the Israeli government announced plans to send a midlevel delegation of security officials to Qatar for further discussions. Concurrently, Hamas officials were engaged in talks in Cairo to address the stalemate, according to a source who requested anonymity.

However, it remains unclear if Israel and Hamas are prepared to advance negotiations in the near future. Previous rounds of talks have raised hopes only to be dashed due to differing demands from both sides.

Airstrikes in Gaza continued on Thursday, resulting in the deaths of Mahmoud Salah, the head of Gaza’s police force, and Hussam Shahwan, a senior aide, as reported by Hamas-run media. The Israeli military confirmed responsibility for Shahwan's death, labeling him a key figure in Hamas’s internal security force, but did not comment on Salah's death. Gaza’s Civil Defense reported that several individuals, including children, were killed or wounded in the strikes.

Israel maintains that it targets Hamas while striving to minimize civilian casualties. The military has established humanitarian zones but has emphasized its commitment to targeting Hamas wherever it is located.

The worsening humanitarian crisis has drawn condemnation from the United Nations and international human rights organizations, alongside diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.

President-elect Donald J. Trump has warned of severe consequences in the Middle East unless an agreement is reached to free hostages by his inauguration on January 20. The specifics of his intended actions remain unclear, and it is anticipated that the incoming administration will encounter similar challenges as the current one.

Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have pledged to eliminate Hamas following the attacks on October 7, 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli fatalities and 250 hostages taken to Gaza. Over 15 months into the conflict, around 100 hostages are still believed to be held in Gaza, with many presumed dead. The Gazan health ministry reports over 45,000 deaths in Gaza since the war began, without distinguishing between civilians and combatants.

Hamas has stated it will not release any more hostages unless Israel agrees to end the war, withdraw its forces, and release numerous Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons.

In a final effort, Biden’s advisers sought to finalize an agreement before the end of his term. In December, national security adviser Jake Sullivan expressed optimism about a cease-fire deal, citing a weakened Hamas and a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

After recent negotiations, Hamas accused Israel of introducing new conditions that delayed a potentially reachable agreement. Netanyahu countered that Hamas had failed to honor prior understandings.

Hamas continues to demand an end to the war and full Israeli withdrawal, although it has shown some flexibility regarding the timeline, according to a senior Hamas official. Meanwhile, Israel is frustrated by Hamas's lack of a list of living hostages held in Gaza.

Families of hostages express growing concern, fearing that each day their loved ones remain captive increases the risk to their lives.

The last agreement between Israel and Hamas occurred in November 2023, resulting in a weeklong cease-fire that facilitated the release of 105 Israeli and foreign hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.

Israeli forces have rescued eight hostages through military action, while the remains of at least 38 hostages have been returned to Israel. Additionally, Israeli troops mistakenly killed three hostages during combat with Hamas in northern Gaza at the end of 2023.





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