Israel is poised to occupy parts of southern Lebanon as a deadline for its military withdrawal approaches on Sunday, according to a statement from the Israeli government. This decision comes amid concerns regarding Hezbollah's continued activity in the region and doubts about the Lebanese Army's capability to curb the militia's resurgence.
Under a truce established in late November, Israeli forces were expected to withdraw within 60 days from areas recently taken from Hezbollah. Concurrently, Hezbollah was to withdraw, allowing the Lebanese military to regain control over territories long dominated by the Iran-backed group.
With less than two days until the deadline, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office indicated that the withdrawal would depend on the Lebanese Army asserting full control over the area, suggesting that the timeline for withdrawal could be flexible and that Israeli troops may remain beyond the deadline.
The statement from Netanyahu's office noted, "Since the cease-fire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal process will continue under full cooperation with the United States." However, the office did not clarify whether Israeli troops would definitely remain in Lebanon after the deadline.
Israeli leaders have communicated to American and French mediators their intention to keep some soldiers in southern Lebanon beyond Sunday. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government has not responded, and Hezbollah's media office stated it is awaiting reactions from the U.S. and France regarding the cease-fire.
Hezbollah has warned that any violation of the agreement would be unacceptable, labeling it a blatant breach of Lebanese sovereignty and the beginning of a new occupation. The group has refrained from addressing accusations of failing to meet its commitments or the Lebanese military's lack of control over the territory in question.
Despite a two-month period with minimal conflict, the potential for renewed fighting looms, although Hezbollah's diminished strength may reduce the threat it poses to Israel compared to the onset of the conflict nearly 16 months ago.
If Israeli troops remain in Lebanon without the Lebanese government's consent, Hezbollah faces a dilemma: either accept the status quo or resume hostilities, risking a significant Israeli counterattack. Israel's defense minister has warned that future strikes would not differentiate between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state.
Since November, Israel has transferred over 100 military installations and villages to Lebanese authorities but still occupies approximately 70 percent of the areas captured during its invasion last fall. Israeli officials assert that the Lebanese Army has not indicated readiness to take control of these areas, while the Lebanese military has stated its readiness to deploy once Israeli forces withdraw.
Recent observations suggest that Israeli troops are not preparing for a complete evacuation. This situation presents a challenge for the new U.S. administration, which supports Israel but also seeks peace in Lebanon, as well as for Lebanon's newly appointed leaders, who require stability to rebuild the country.
Experts note that the new Lebanese leadership has yet to demonstrate effective management of Hezbollah, a weakness that Israel may exploit to justify remaining in Lebanon past the deadline. The current conflict escalated following an attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, which prompted Hezbollah to engage in hostilities against Israel.
The fighting intensified over the summer, leading to significant casualties and destruction on both sides. The conflict has also strained Hezbollah and Iran's influence, particularly following the collapse of the Syrian government, which complicated arms transfers to Hezbollah.
While Israeli officials argue that a stronger Lebanese government would benefit Israel by limiting Hezbollah's influence, the ongoing Israeli presence in Lebanon undermines the authority of the new Lebanese leadership. The Lebanese Army has made deployments in southern Lebanon but has not yet taken control of border areas further east.
Israeli military sources indicate that troops are expected to remain in place to prevent Hezbollah's return, with no plans to dismantle military bases established along the border.