Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, numerous sanctions have been imposed by various countries on Russian banks, businesses, and individuals. As President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to take office, the effectiveness and future of these sanctions are expected to be scrutinized.
Trump has expressed a desire to minimize the use of sanctions and indicated a shift in U.S. policy towards Ukraine, claiming he could end the war in a single day. Experts suggest that sanctions and military aid will likely play significant roles in any negotiations.
The effectiveness of the sanctions remains a contentious topic. Initial predictions that economic restrictions would quickly destabilize President Vladimir V. Putin's regime have not materialized, as he continues to maintain power and his military forces are actively engaged in Ukraine.
Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist, argues that while the hope for a swift end to the war through sanctions was unrealistic, they have indeed hindered Moscow's military capabilities. Following the invasion, the U.S., Europe, and allies implemented rapid and extensive sanctions, limiting Russia's access to the global financial system and significantly impacting its oil exports.
Western banks froze over $300 billion in Russian assets, and various goods and services, including advanced technology, were restricted. Europe has also made strides to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, with Ukraine recently refusing to renew a gas transit agreement.
Guriev posits that without sanctions, Russia might have had greater resources to sustain its war efforts, potentially altering the conflict's trajectory. The Russian economy has faced challenges, including high inflation and rising interest rates, while overall economic growth has slowed.
Elina Ribakova, a foreign policy expert, notes that sanctions will be a valuable negotiating tool for Trump. The most impactful sanctions have involved the global financial system, where the U.S. holds significant influence due to the dominance of the dollar.
Washington's actions to limit Russia's access to this system have complicated international transactions and increased costs for Russia. However, despite these measures, Russia has found ways to mitigate the sanctions' effects, primarily through increased trade with China and India, which have continued to purchase Russian oil and provide essential materials.
Critics argue that the sanctions have not been stringent enough and that Western nations have been slow to adapt to changing circumstances. Concerns about energy supply and inflation led to weakened restrictions on Russian fuel exports, allowing Russia to maintain substantial revenue streams from energy sales.
Furthermore, Russia has developed alternative methods to circumvent sanctions, including a shadow fleet for oil transport. The European Union continues to import a significant portion of liquefied natural gas from Russia, undermining the intended impact of sanctions.
Despite the potential value of sanctions as bargaining chips, some analysts believe they may not be sufficient to persuade Putin to reach a settlement that satisfies Ukraine and its European allies. The political landscape, including the situation in Syria, may influence Putin's stance in Ukraine.
Ultimately, the true effectiveness of sanctions as a bargaining tool will depend on Putin's perspective and willingness to negotiate.