During Donald J. Trump's previous presidency, the wealthy monarchies of the Persian Gulf maintained a largely positive relationship with his administration. As Trump prepares for a potential return to the White House, Gulf leaders have generally expressed support for him. However, significant differences have emerged over critical issues such as Israel and Iran, as well as potential energy policy friction.
Despite the likelihood of avoiding major tensions with U.S. allies in the Gulf, Trump faces a region that has undergone substantial changes following Israel's military actions in Gaza in response to a deadly attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, resulting in significant casualties.
In Gaza, health officials report at least 45,000 fatalities, while regional ramifications have seen Hezbollah's influence eroded amid ongoing conflict with Israel and challenges to the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Meanwhile, Trump is surrounding himself with advisors who support a hardline stance on Iran and Israel, while Gulf leaders advocate for a more conciliatory approach towards Iran and a tougher position on Israel.
So far, Trump's administration has shown a willingness to engage with Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Recent activities include Trump's appointee for Middle East envoy attending a Bitcoin conference in Abu Dhabi and meetings with key Saudi leaders.
Calls for U.S. engagement in the region have been articulated by figures like Prince Turki al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia, who expressed in an open letter the necessity of Trump continuing past initiatives aimed at fostering peace, emphasizing leadership that balances humanitarian needs with strategic interests.
In contrast, there has been an observable shift in the Gulf's messaging toward Israel. Crown Prince Mohammed of Saudi Arabia labeled the Israeli military actions in Gaza as “genocide.” His remarks indicate a hesitance towards normalizing relations with Israel without prior establishment of a Palestinian state, a condition that remains elusive under the current Israeli government.
The United Arab Emirates, a signatory to the Abraham Accords, has also expressed support for Palestinians amidst ongoing tensions. Despite public statements, U.S. diplomats suggest that Saudi Arabia may still privately entertain the prospect of advancing normalization, contingent upon a ceasefire in Gaza and commitments towards Palestinian statehood.
Reconciliation with Iran has emerged as a significant theme since Trump's first term, during which Gulf nations supported his hardline policies against Tehran. However, Saudi Arabia has made diplomatic overtures to Iran, aimed at fostering a stable environment that aligns with Crown Prince Mohammed’s diversification goals for the Saudi economy.
There are indications that some Iranian officials may also be open to negotiations with Trump, signaling a possible shift in the U.S.-Iran dynamic. Trump has hinted at the necessity of striking a deal to mitigate the threats posed by Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Despite potential alignment on diplomatic approaches, economic policies may create friction. Trump's campaign promises include increasing U.S. oil and gas production, which could adversely affect Gulf economies reliant on oil revenues. Analysts warn that an increase in U.S. production could lead to lower prices, undermining the economic stability of Gulf producers.
As Trump embarks on this new chapter, the interplay of U.S. foreign and energy policies will be critical in shaping his relationships with Gulf allies.