As Donald J. Trump took the oath of office in Washington, a gathering of Ukrainian business groups in Davos, Switzerland, closely monitored the ceremony on large screens. The event, coinciding with the World Economic Forum’s annual conference, showcased enthusiasm for the returning American president, with speakers expressing optimism about his potential partnership with Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russia.
Despite the apparent excitement, underlying uncertainty pervaded the atmosphere. Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, acknowledged the unpredictability surrounding Trump’s presidency, stating, “We expect President Trump to surprise us, but we do not know what the surprise will be.”
Trump’s return to the White House has raised concerns among European business leaders and policymakers, who are preparing for a potentially tumultuous period. The European Commission established a group informally referred to as a “Trump task force” to explore possible responses to anticipated shifts in American trade and foreign policy.
Trump's administration poses significant challenges to European policies, with threats of broad tariffs and demands for increased European defense spending. His prior actions, such as withdrawing from the Paris climate agreements and the World Health Organization, signal a willingness to disrupt established norms.
One of the most pressing questions for European officials is how Trump will alter the U.S. stance toward Ukraine. During his campaign, he pledged to end the war on his first day in office, but specifics on this commitment remain unclear.
Companies and governments are navigating the complexities of Trump’s administration with caution, recognizing the potential consequences of overt criticism. The European Commission's task force has been researching detailed responses to the new U.S. presidency while maintaining a public stance of negotiation.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the commission, indicated that Europe could increase purchases of American liquefied natural gas, a move Trump has suggested to avert tariffs. She emphasized the need for pragmatism while standing by European principles and interests.
The task force, though not officially named as such, focused heavily on tariffs and trade responses. European officials are adopting a more disciplined approach compared to the first Trump administration, aiming to avoid reactive political cycles.
Despite preparations, the potential for significant disruptions remains high. The current situation is viewed as a greater threat than previous years, with Trump’s capacity to impose broad tariffs affecting multiple sectors.
Trump’s presidency may accelerate changes already in motion, particularly regarding European military spending, which many view as necessary. As European leaders convene to discuss security and defense strategies, there is a possibility that the looming uncertainty could foster closer collaboration among European nations.
François Bayrou, the French prime minister, urged European unity in the face of U.S. policies, emphasizing that cooperation among European nations is crucial for navigating these challenges.