For over a decade, European governments have been working to counter covert influence operations from adversaries such as Russia and China. Currently, they face a new challenge: overt efforts by figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump's MAGA movement to gain influence, destabilize elected leaders, and promote far-right ideologies.
Even before potentially retaking office, Trump has made threats regarding the acquisition of NATO allies' territories, including Canada and Denmark. Musk, a significant financial backer of Trump, is utilizing his social media platform, X, to elevate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and criticize leaders of the UK’s Labour Party.
It remains uncertain whether Europe’s political landscape can effectively counter these new challenges. The current situation is markedly different from previous attempts by Trump allies to connect with European far-right factions, as countries like Germany and France are experiencing political upheaval, with far-right parties gaining traction.
A senior official from Trump's first administration warned that Europe is unprepared for the impending influence from the MAGA movement. Musk, having invested $250 million to support Trump's re-election, is leveraging his notoriety and ownership of X to impact political discourse, including targeting figures like Kamala Harris and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Musk has revived controversial topics in the UK, labeling Starmer as “utterly despicable” and suggesting he should be imprisoned. Recent reports indicate Musk is contemplating a $100 million donation to the far-right Reform Party in Britain, which would mark a significant political contribution.
In Germany, Musk is encouraging support for the AfD, which has faced scrutiny from the country’s intelligence services. He has publicly endorsed the party, calling it a beacon of hope for Germany amidst economic challenges. His recent live-streamed conversation with AfD candidate Alice Weidel further legitimizes the party's presence in German politics.
While Musk's influence may not guarantee electoral success for the AfD, social media can shift public opinion and normalize previously extreme views. The historical context of Germany’s political landscape, particularly the memory of Hitler, has thus far prevented collaboration with far-right parties.
U.S. influence in foreign elections is not unprecedented; however, the current overt actions by the MAGA movement are causing confusion among European leaders who have long viewed the U.S. as a model for democracy. Concerns have been raised about the implications of American interference in European political affairs.
Influence campaigns thrive on existing societal grievances. In Europe, declining trust in institutions following the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic has fueled discontent with centrist leadership, creating fertile ground for far-right ideologies.
Experts suggest that while Musk's actions may exacerbate existing tensions, the underlying causes of political discontent in Europe stem from policy decisions made over the past decade. Analysts warn that both Musk and Russian interests aim to create chaos within European democracies, emphasizing the need for internal focus on voter concerns.
Despite internal conflicts within the MAGA movement, Trump remains committed to advancing his agenda in Europe, regardless of the political leadership in place. Observers note that Trump's approach will prioritize American interests above all else, signaling a potentially aggressive stance towards European governance.