The cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon are expected to hold for the time being, despite recent tensions, as all parties seek to avoid full-scale conflict for at least a few weeks, according to analysts.
In southern Lebanon, Israeli troops remained in position past the Sunday deadline for withdrawal, citing Hezbollah's failure to adhere to its commitment to leave the area. In Gaza, Hamas did not release a female hostage as anticipated, leading Israel to postpone the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.
Despite mutual accusations of violating agreements, analysts suggest that both Israel and its adversaries have incentives to maintain flexibility and overlook transgressions temporarily. Hezbollah, while frustrated with Israel's troop presence, risks severe retaliation if it resumes rocket attacks. Hamas aims to retain its power in Gaza, which could be jeopardized by a return to war. Israel, on the other hand, seeks to maintain the current situation long enough to secure the release of additional hostages and appease U.S. President Trump, who has emphasized the importance of peace in the region.
Efforts to extend the Gaza truce were evident as Israel and Hamas reached a resolution to the weekend crisis late Sunday. Qatar, acting as a mediator, announced that the female hostage, Arbel Yehud, would be released this week along with two others. In exchange, Israel agreed to allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza on Monday morning.
In Lebanon, the White House confirmed the extension of the truce until February 18, although there was no immediate response from Israel or Hezbollah. The Lebanese prime minister's office also verified the extension.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator in Middle East peace talks, remarked on the uncertainty of the situation, stating, “They’re going to get through the next few weeks — beyond that is anyone’s guess.” He noted that the agreements rely on each side granting the other some discretion, which can be both a weakness and a strength.
Despite the tensions, both truces survived the weekend, even as Israeli forces engaged with individuals attempting to return to areas under Israeli control. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported 22 fatalities from Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, while a Palestinian Authority news agency reported one death in Gaza amid large crowds demanding to return home.
By Monday morning, the situation in Gaza appeared to be stabilizing. Hezbollah issued a statement supporting residents seeking to return home and called on foreign powers to compel Israel to withdraw, but did not resume rocket fire.
Analysts suggest that Hezbollah is unlikely to escalate hostilities given its weakened leadership and the loss of its primary arms supply route through Syria. The group is also cautious about losing support from its Shiite Muslim base ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections, as the community has suffered significantly due to the conflict.
While Hezbollah may possess some military capabilities, analysts warn that any attack on Israel would likely provoke a severe Israeli response, jeopardizing the group's existence. The Shiite community's support is crucial for Hezbollah's political survival, especially after the heavy toll the community faced during the recent conflict.
The Gaza cease-fire is considered more fragile than the one in Lebanon, with its most significant test anticipated in early March when both Hamas and Israel must decide on extending the truce beyond the initial 42 days. Currently, Israel appears inclined to maintain the cease-fire to facilitate further hostage releases, but an extension would necessitate both sides agreeing to a permanent cessation of hostilities, a prospect that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems reluctant to pursue.
The terms of the agreement allow for some flexibility, permitting the truce to continue beyond the initial period as long as negotiations for a permanent arrangement are ongoing. However, Israeli officials have expressed their unwillingness to engage in prolonged, unproductive negotiations, particularly if Hamas ceases to release hostages, which serve as its primary bargaining tool.
Hamas is also cautious, seeking a cease-fire that conclusively ends the war rather than one imposed at any cost. Much of the future of the cease-fires may hinge on President Trump's willingness to influence Netanyahu toward a more enduring peace. Trump's previous communications with the Israeli prime minister were pivotal in establishing the initial cease-fire, but it remains uncertain whether he will maintain this stance moving forward.
Analysts suggest that if Netanyahu convinces Trump to renew military actions, conflict may resume, whereas if Trump remains committed to peace, the situation could stabilize.