As U.S. officials engage with the rebel group now in control of Syria, they are mindful of the implications of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Three U.S. diplomats recently met in Damascus with leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the militia that has overthrown Bashar al-Assad's regime. The objective was to encourage the group to govern Syria inclusively and moderately to prevent further violence and chaos in the region.
U.S. officials believe that the rebels are currently expressing the right intentions. Barbara Leaf, a senior State Department official, described the group's leader, Ahmed al-Shara, as pragmatic, noting his moderate statements regarding the rights of women and minority groups, as well as assurances against the operation of terrorist organizations within Syria.
Despite this, U.S. officials remain cautious about al-Shara, fearing he may be attempting to gain international support while planning to consolidate power and impose strict Islamic rule, similar to the Taliban's actions in Afghanistan.
During the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, negotiators aimed to facilitate a power-sharing agreement with the Taliban, believing that the group might be willing to make concessions for international legitimacy. However, this effort ultimately failed, leading to the Taliban's swift takeover of Kabul and the imposition of severe restrictions on Afghan society.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken highlighted the lessons learned from the Taliban's rise, warning that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham could follow a similar trajectory. Analysts caution that the U.S. must recognize that these groups often prioritize power over legitimacy.
On the same day as the meeting in Damascus, a joint statement from the U.S. and other governments expressed concern over the Taliban's restrictions on women and girls and the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
Experts emphasize that the U.S. has limited leverage in influencing the Taliban's behavior, as the group has shown little interest in international recognition or aid. Some analysts argue that the U.S. should engage more actively with Syria, as the situation is strategically significant.
While U.S. officials have suspended a bounty on al-Shara, they remain cautious, stating that the group's actions will be the true measure of its intentions. A critical test will be whether al-Shara's government can prevent terrorist organizations from using Syria as a base.
In conclusion, while the recent diplomatic engagement in Syria is seen as a positive step, experts warn of the risks involved and stress the importance of scrutinizing the actions of militant groups over their words.