Ukraine was granted permission to use Western long-range missiles against Russian military targets over a month ago, but their usage has since decreased significantly. The slowdown is attributed to a dwindling supply of missiles and concerns regarding the political implications of their use, particularly with the election of Donald J. Trump, who has criticized the decision to allow U.S.-made missiles to be used inside Russia.
While the missiles have had some limited effectiveness, they have not altered the overall course of the conflict, according to senior NATO officials. Russia has responded to Ukraine's missile strikes with its typical array of drones and missiles, and there has been no significant escalation of military operations.
Adm. Rob Bauer, NATO’s senior military officer, noted that the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) strikes have successfully targeted Russian weapons factories and ammunition depots, forcing Russia to relocate logistics facilities further from the front lines. However, he questioned whether these actions would be sufficient for Ukraine to achieve victory.
Ukraine had long sought Western weaponry, including HIMARS rocket launchers and F-16 fighter jets, but by the time these were provided, Ukraine had already lost significant ground. Western officials have indicated that Ukraine has relied heavily on external support without sufficiently bolstering its own military capabilities.
The U.S. had previously hesitated to send long-range ATACMS to Ukraine due to fears of escalating the conflict. However, in November, President Biden authorized the shipment of up to 500 missiles, which Ukraine has used against targets in Russian-controlled territories and Crimea.
Despite the effectiveness of these strikes, U.S. and NATO officials believe Ukraine could have been more selective in its targeting and usage of missiles. Following the introduction of North Korean troops into the conflict, the U.S. justified the use of missiles in Russian territory, although Ukraine's missile supply was reportedly dwindling.
Since receiving permission to use the missiles, Ukraine has conducted several strikes, including a notable attack on a Russian command bunker. In response, Russia launched its new hypersonic missile at a military facility in Ukraine, signaling its capability to strike across Europe.
After a period of reduced missile activity from both sides, analysts suggest that Ukraine is now being more strategic with its remaining missiles, focusing on high-value targets. Recent attacks by Ukraine have prompted threats of retaliation from Russia, which has responded with large-scale missile strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
As the situation evolves, U.S. officials believe that Russia is likely to avoid actions that could escalate the conflict further, particularly with the incoming U.S. administration. However, they caution that Moscow may increase cyber or sabotage operations in Europe as a form of retaliation.