In the aftermath of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Turkey has emerged with significant influence over the rebel factions now controlling much of the country. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long supported these rebels, which has opened avenues for Turkey to expand its economic and political reach in the region.
Experts note that while Syria's transition may not be smooth, Turkey's influence is expected to grow. The relationship between Turkey and the Syrian rebels has reportedly diminished Russia's regional influence, raising questions about the future of Russian military bases in Syria.
Initially, Turkey remained silent as rebels captured key cities in northern Syria, but Erdogan expressed confidence regarding the advances towards Damascus. Following the rebels' successful entry into the capital, Turkey announced plans to reopen its embassy, which had been closed for nearly 13 years.
To facilitate diplomatic relations without formally recognizing the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Turkey appointed a temporary chargé d’affaires in Damascus. Turkey has labeled HTS a terrorist organization since 2018, complicating its diplomatic stance.
Historically, Erdogan's relationship with Assad was cooperative, marked by trade agreements and mutual visits. However, the relationship soured after the onset of the Arab Spring in 2011, leading Turkey to support opposition forces and take in millions of Syrian refugees.
Turkey has since become a key player in the region, establishing connections with HTS and providing indirect support through military presence and humanitarian aid. Analysts suggest that Turkey's influence over HTS positions it favorably to benefit from the regime's fall.
As the situation evolves, Turkey has been vocal about Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, condemning external military actions, including Israeli strikes on Syrian territory. Concurrently, Turkey has conducted its own military operations against Kurdish militants it views as threats.
In a recent international forum, Turkey’s foreign minister emphasized the need for global support to help the Syrian people shape their future. Observers note that both Turkey and HTS are focused on preventing total state collapse, aiming to maintain institutional integrity in the country.