The 13-year civil war in Syria has officially ended, but the situation remains precarious for the Kurdish minority in the country. Various armed factions are vying for control following the collapse of the Assad regime, including the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which opposes the Kurdish forces.
For over a decade, the SDF has been a key ally of the United States, successfully liberating cities from the Islamic State and detaining approximately 9,000 of its fighters. However, Turkey views the Kurdish group as a threat, associating them with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K.), which has been in conflict with the Turkish state for decades.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who supports the rebel factions that ousted Assad, is poised to leverage the political changes in Syria to advance his agenda against the Kurdish fighters. Analysts suggest that Turkey's influence in the new Syrian government, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, will be significant, potentially undermining the Kurdish presence in the northeast.
As Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies gained control, Turkish-backed rebels launched attacks on the SDF, supported by Turkish airstrikes. SDF commander Gen. Mazloum Abdi reported that he had to redirect forces from guarding prisons housing ISIS members to confront the Turkish-backed militants.
Experts warn that the Kurdish forces may face increased pressure, leading to potential defections among Arab fighters who had allied with the SDF. A favorable outcome for the Kurds could involve U.S. support to maintain their territory, while a negative scenario might result in intensified conflict with Turkish-backed groups and loss of control over key resources.
The Biden administration is actively seeking a cease-fire agreement between Turkey and the Kurds before the transition of power. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken emphasized the importance of containing ISIS while navigating complex diplomatic relations with Turkey, which views the Kurdish forces as illegitimate partners.
Recent developments indicate that U.S. diplomacy may be yielding results, as a cease-fire was announced in Manbij, a city that has seen frequent clashes. However, concerns remain that this retreat could signal further losses for the Kurdish forces.
In the wake of ongoing tensions, the city of Kobani, significant to the Kurdish community, is seen as a potential flashpoint for conflict. Reports suggest that Turkish-backed rebels are preparing for possible military action in the region, prompting fears among residents.
General Abdi is reportedly working to strengthen ties with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham amid these threats. Observers note that Turkey may delay any military offensive until its interests are secured with the new Syrian government and the U.S. troop presence is clarified.
Senator Lindsey Graham has warned that any Turkish military action against the Kurdish forces could jeopardize U.S. interests and lead to a resurgence of ISIS. He has indicated a willingness to advocate for economic sanctions against Turkey should such an invasion occur.