President Bashar al-Assad's political position is increasingly precarious as the Syrian government faces escalating opposition rebellions and ongoing protests near the capital, Damascus. Reports from war monitoring groups indicate that government forces have withdrawn from several suburbs of the capital.
Despite military denials of these withdrawals, the Assad government, which previously appeared stable, now confronts challenges to its control, particularly with rebel forces advancing toward the strategic city of Homs, located approximately 100 miles from Damascus.
This surge in uprisings poses a significant threat to Mr. al-Assad's regime, which may struggle to defend its diminishing territory, especially in light of Iran's recent decision to evacuate military personnel from Syria. Limited support from Russia, another key ally, further complicates the situation.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that government forces have retreated from several suburbs, including Moadamia al-Sham and Daraya, as well as the Mezzeh military airport. Confirmations from other sources remain pending. Additionally, protests erupted in the suburb of Jaramana, where demonstrators expressed anti-government sentiments.
While state media asserts that Mr. al-Assad remains in Damascus, the situation in southern and northeastern Syria appears to be deteriorating for his government. Rebel factions have gained significant ground in Daraa Province, and U.S.-backed Kurdish forces are advancing in Deir al-Zour.
A rebel commander announced the intention to encircle the capital, emphasizing a buildup of reinforcements. Despite previous robust military backing from Russia and Iran, recent developments suggest a withdrawal of Iranian personnel and minimal support from Russia, which is preoccupied with its commitments in Ukraine.
Resistance from government forces in Homs is notable, with ongoing clashes reported as they attempt to halt the rebel advance. The Observatory detailed continued shelling by government forces targeting newly captured rebel areas.
Analysts indicate that the Assad regime's military has not effectively strengthened its ranks, relying instead on poorly trained conscripts. Although Mr. al-Assad recently increased military salaries by 50 percent, this measure is not expected to significantly deter desertions.
U.S. officials have warned that Damascus could soon come under serious threat, prompting the U.S. Embassy to advise citizens to leave Syria due to the volatile security situation. The ongoing rebel offensive near Homs is primarily led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has made considerable territorial gains since its recent operations began.
In Daraa, where the uprising against Mr. al-Assad began in 2011, local rebel factions have captured over 80 percent of the region, further signaling a shift in control. Similar patterns of opposition success are evident in the neighboring province of Sweida, where local groups have taken control of key security installations.