Armed rebels have rapidly advanced from northern Syria towards the capital, Damascus, leading to the destruction of statues representing the Assad dynasty, which has ruled the country for over 50 years. The fall of these figures was met with shouts of "God is Great!" raising questions about the potential for the rebels to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, commander of the rebel alliance, stated, "Our goal is to liberate Syria from this oppressive regime," emphasizing the group's intentions in a video interview. Experts suggest that a significant confrontation for control of Damascus would be pivotal in the ongoing regional turmoil, which has escalated since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
The situation is further complicated by the involvement of major regional players such as Israel, Iran, and Turkey, all of whom have vested interests in the outcome. Analysts believe that the fight for Syria is crucial to understanding shifting power dynamics in the Middle East.
Mona Yacoubian of the United States Institute of Peace noted that Syria serves as a "barometer" for regional changes and is likely to experience further chaos. Israel has labeled Syria as the "hub of hubs" for its role in supplying arms and personnel, particularly to Hezbollah.
Israel aims to prevent Iran from re-establishing its supply lines to Syria, fearing the implications of a potential Islamic government should Assad's regime collapse. In a notable shift, Iran has begun evacuating senior military personnel from Syria, indicating a possible retreat from its long-standing support of Assad.
Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is perceived to be capitalizing on Iran's vulnerabilities, with Erdogan expressing support for the rebels. Meanwhile, Russia faces a dilemma in balancing its military commitments in Syria with its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Both Russia and the U.S. have encouraged their citizens to leave Syria amidst the escalating situation. The U.S. has struggled to formulate a coherent policy regarding Syria since Russia's military intervention in 2015, and the current transition between U.S. administrations adds to the uncertainty.
In recent developments, Syrian rebels have gained control of two key cities, Aleppo and Hama, and are now focusing on Homs, a strategic location near Damascus. Civilians have begun evacuating Homs as the rebels intensify their offensive.
The Syrian military, heavily reliant on Iranian militias, has been weakened by Israeli strikes and is struggling to maintain control. Kurdish forces have also gained ground, taking control of a crucial border crossing used by Iranian forces.
Hezbollah has deployed some fighters to defend Homs, but its capacity is uncertain after extended engagements with Israel. Meanwhile, the Syrian Army is facing challenges, including low morale and insufficient training, leading to desertions.
Many observers view the Assad regime as fragile, with analysts likening it to a "hollow shell." Concerns remain about the potential consequences of Assad's fall, particularly the fear of a jihadist regime taking power. Nevertheless, al-Jolani has attempted to reshape his image to appeal to a broader coalition, distancing himself from his past ties to Al Qaeda.
The ongoing conflict in Syria is fundamentally about the balance of power among regional players, with the future of the country hanging in the balance as tensions continue to rise.