President Yoon Suk Yeol has significantly altered South Korea's diplomatic strategy, aligning closely with the United States through sanctions and joint military exercises against North Korea. He received acclaim for overcoming historical grievances with Japan, fostering trilateral cooperation aimed at deterring China.
Yoon promoted Western values, crediting the U.S.-South Korea alliance for the nation’s rise as a global economic force. He condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a breach of international law and engaged in arms sales to countries supporting Ukraine, while also opposing China’s maritime claims in the Indo-Pacific.
However, following his impeachment, Yoon's foreign policy initiatives now face potential challenges. Although not impeached for his diplomatic actions, his legacy and the intricate alliance-building efforts in Northeast Asia may suffer consequences from his removal.
Yoon has been suspended from office pending the Constitutional Court's decision on his reinstatement. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has assumed the role of interim leader during this period.
Experts noted that the Yoon administration was viewed favorably by Washington, but uncertainty looms with his departure. The interim government's lack of a popular mandate may hinder its effectiveness, particularly in foreign policy.
Yoon's controversial declaration of martial law in early December, which lasted only six hours due to public backlash, led to his impeachment. This declaration shocked global powers and raised concerns about South Korea's international standing.
The U.S. Secretary of Defense canceled a visit to Seoul following the martial law decree, reflecting international disapproval of Yoon's actions. Analysts expressed that this abrupt change in leadership could destabilize the U.S.-South Korea alliance, especially amid rising tensions from North Korea.
Historically, South Korea maintained caution towards major powers due to traumas from colonial rule and Cold War divisions. Yoon's administration, however, sought to clarify South Korea's position in the rivalry between the U.S. and China, taking significant steps to improve relations with Japan, despite domestic backlash.
Progressives within South Korea’s political landscape are expected to re-emerge, likely leading to a shift towards a more conciliatory approach towards North Korea and a cautious stance towards China. This could lead to increased tensions with Japan and skepticism towards U.S. policies.
Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the opposition Democratic Party, has indicated a desire for trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, while also seeking a practical relationship with China that aligns with U.S. policy.
The interim government’s limited capacity for bold initiatives places it in a vulnerable position as the new Trump administration approaches, which may adopt a transactional stance towards alliances and influence U.S. troop presence in South Korea.
As the region navigates these shifts, experts suggest that the evolving dynamics could prove advantageous for North Korea, especially given the uncertainties surrounding U.S.-South Korea relations.