Satellite imagery and ship tracking data indicate that Russian naval and commercial activity in the Syrian port of Tartus has ceased following the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. This port has historically been critical to Moscow's military presence in the region.
Images captured on December 5 and 6 revealed five large Russian military vessels and a submarine at the port, but subsequent imagery taken on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday showed that these vessels had departed.
On Tuesday, satellite images displayed two of three frigates loitering several miles offshore. The future movement of these ships remains uncertain as it is unclear whether they will remain in this location or proceed to another destination.
Since its establishment in 1971, the deepwater port at Tartus has been a focal point of Russian maritime presence, serving first the Soviet Union and now Russia. It stands as Russia’s sole port in the Mediterranean.
Despite claims from Israel’s defense ministry that Israeli airstrikes had completely destroyed the Syrian Navy in the port city of Latakia, several small Syrian naval ships are still docked at Tartus.
Ship tracking data from MarineTraffic indicates that no cargo ships have entered or departed from Tartus since at least Monday. Two small commercial vessels arrived in the waters surrounding the port on Monday and Wednesday morning but have yet to dock.
Other vessels appear to be avoiding the port entirely. Two Russian ships that typically transport grain from Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine to Syria have altered their course in recent days, with the Mikhail Nenashev circling off the coast of Cyprus.
In a related development, an Iranian oil tanker, the Lotus, abruptly turned around in the Red Sea on Sunday, carrying 750,000 barrels of crude oil that was destined for Syria.
Experts highlight that Syria has been heavily reliant on oil supplies from Iran for its refineries. According to Viktor Katona, head of oil analysis at Kpler, with Iranian tankers reversing course after Assad’s departure, Syria is likely to face a shortage of transportation fuels, leading to dwindling diesel and gasoline inventories in the near future.