In the week following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, citizens have expressed relief at the end of a regime marked by severe poverty and human rights violations. However, the rise of the rebel groups responsible for this change may worsen the ongoing humanitarian crisis stemming from the civil war.
During Assad's tenure, international sanctions severely impacted Syria’s economy. Any new administration will inherit these sanctions, which will hinder funding for reconstruction efforts and limit assistance to civilians unless lifted by the international community.
Additionally, the leading faction among the rebels, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.), has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, the United Nations, and other entities. This classification poses significant challenges for any government that emerges under H.T.S. control, as it restricts access to aid and further complicates international support.
Experts emphasize that Syria ranks among the most sanctioned nations globally, which complicates the provision of humanitarian aid. Alex Zerden, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security, noted that these restrictions make it particularly difficult to deliver assistance compared to other regions.
Despite these challenges, there is a consensus within the international community regarding the urgent need for aid. Recent commitments include £50 million (approximately $63.5 million) from Britain for displaced Syrians and Syrian refugees in neighboring Lebanon and Jordan, and €8 million (about $8.4 million) from Germany.
However, these contributions are insufficient compared to the extensive resources required for Syria’s recovery following over a decade of conflict. While some humanitarian exceptions exist, the broader sanctions continue to deter aid and pose risks to stabilization efforts.
Following Assad's ouster, discussions are intensifying regarding the potential lifting of H.T.S.'s terrorist designation if it commits to democratic processes and human rights protections. Ahmed al-Shara, H.T.S.'s leader, has publicly advocated for the removal of this label and for sanctions on Assad's regime to be lifted to facilitate reconstruction.
In U.S. foreign policy circles, there is some support for this position. Senator Chris Murphy highlighted the necessity of temporarily suspending sanctions to boost humanitarian assistance and reconstruction efforts for the Syrian populace in the short term. He also advocated for direct engagement with H.T.S.
However, with the Biden administration nearing its end and the Trump administration not yet in place, immediate action to lift sanctions seems unlikely. The U.S. is expected to continue relying on existing humanitarian exceptions to assist civilians in Syria.
Many Syrian civilians urgently require help, and some officials warn that the U.S. must act decisively amidst growing foreign influence in the region. Senator Murphy cautioned that swift decisions will be made in Damascus, and delays could allow other powers to assert their influence while the U.S. remains indecisive.