A few weeks ago, world leaders were not focused on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its classification as a terrorist organization. However, the rebel faction that executed a surprise offensive leading to the toppling of the Assad regime has emerged as Syria's de facto government.
The terrorist label, used by the United States, the United Nations, and other entities, has escalated into a matter of international concern and debate.
This designation imposes significant restrictions on countries and international organizations in providing aid to a Syrian government that is in urgent need of resources to assert control, deliver basic services, and rebuild after years of conflict.
Analysts and regional officials warn that these limitations could have far-reaching consequences for Syria and the Middle East, as a weakened and fragmented state may foster the emergence of terror groups like the Islamic State. Some experts argue that this is an opportune moment to offer Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group, a clear path to legitimacy.
According to Kirsten Fontenrose, a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council Middle East program, the period following a regime's fall is critical as power vacuums can quickly arise. She emphasized the need for the international community to create a reconstruction plan for Syria that recognizes Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and incentivizes it to evolve into a non-paramilitary political entity that upholds free and fair elections.
Ms. Fontenrose noted that donors possess leverage, as any leadership in Syria will require foreign aid, and the group may be more receptive to change now as it seeks recognition and support.
Geir Pedersen, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, mentioned during a Geneva briefing that the possibility of lifting the terrorist designation could incentivize the group to collaborate on forming an inclusive transitional government. He observed that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has communicated messages of unity and inclusiveness to the Syrian populace and appears to be backing these claims with action.
Leaders of the Group of 7 nations recently reaffirmed their commitment to an inclusive, Syrian-led political transition process. However, engaging with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham regarding governance poses potential challenges for the international community, as it conflicts with a 2015 U.N. Security Council resolution urging member states to combat terrorism linked to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s precursor, the Nusra Front, which was previously affiliated with Al Qaeda before severing ties in 2016.
For years, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has sought global legitimacy by distancing itself from jihadist ambitions and concentrating on governance in Idlib province. Despite its assertions of cooperation with competing factions, the group has faced allegations of employing authoritarian measures, raising doubts about its capability to garner either Syrian or international support.
U.S. intelligence agencies and officials in the Biden administration are carefully scrutinizing the group and its leader, Ahmed al-Shara, who has made efforts to mitigate concerns regarding the organization’s objectives and historical connections to Al Qaeda.
There are renewed discussions in global security circles about whether Hayat Tahrir al-Sham should maintain its terrorist designation. Under President Bashar al-Assad, the U.S. similarly classified the Syrian government as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Historically, organizations labeled as terrorist have achieved legitimacy, as seen in the cases of Sinn Fein in Ireland and the African National Congress in South Africa, successfully integrating into government structures and severing paramilitary ties. However, this process can be lengthy. Time is of the essence in Syria, and political will to support Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s transformation may be limited, particularly with the transition between the Biden and Trump administrations.
Experts assert that the U.S. government could facilitate financial assistance if desired, although it would necessitate considerable political capital, which has yet to be demonstrated. The terrorist designation is expected to hinder Syrian reconstruction efforts, as it restricts state support for organizations labeled as terrorist while penalizing those who engage with them.
Ms. Fontenrose expressed concern that international inaction could jeopardize the prospects for a democratic Syria. In a recent post, she urged the international community to act with urgency, stating that a lack of a concrete governance strategy for Syria would strengthen the potential for Islamist military groups to assume complete control.