Since the attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has raised significant concerns regarding the post-war governance of the region. Experts warn that without a centralized authority, Gaza may fall under the control of warlords and organized crime.
The war has exacerbated the rise of black markets and criminal gangs, evidenced by incidents such as the looting of a United Nations aid convoy consisting of 109 trucks. Additionally, a contraband trade in tobacco has emerged, with organized gangs targeting humanitarian shipments for cigarettes that can fetch high prices on the black market.
While the Israeli military aims to eliminate Hamas, there is currently no clear plan for governance following the conflict. The Israeli government has resisted calls for the Palestinian Authority to assume control over Gaza.
Hamas, despite its oppressive regime, provided some level of governance in Gaza. Its potential downfall could leave the territory without any governing institutions, creating a power vacuum that may lead to criminal governance, where organized crime groups fill the void left by weakened official institutions.
Experts have noted that war typically leads to the emergence of black markets, which can empower criminal networks. Gaza has a pre-existing black market due to longstanding restrictions on imports, with local clans historically involved in trafficking various goods.
Although some raids on aid convoys may be driven by desperation, reports indicate that armed criminal gangs are primarily responsible for these attacks, often linked to local clans. With the collapse of Hamas, these clans may step in to exert control over Gaza, similar to patterns observed in Iraq and Syria.
While it is possible that these groups could govern more humanely than Hamas, fragmented governance often comes with high logistical and economic costs. The Israeli government has previously suggested that local clans could take over governance, but the clans have rejected this notion.
As Gaza remains without a civil administration, smaller armed groups may gain power, making it increasingly difficult to re-establish central authority. Historical examples show that such scenarios can lead to hybrid governance systems, where formal authorities coexist with powerful criminal organizations.
In extreme cases, as seen in Haiti, armed groups can become so dominant that they effectively control the government, leading to a violent and authoritarian environment for citizens. The situation in Gaza serves as a reminder that defeating Hamas without a clear plan for governance could lead to further crises.