France’s Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, is facing a no-confidence vote that could potentially leave the country without a functioning government or a budget as it approaches the new year.
This situation raises concerns about a possible constitutional crisis or an American-style government shutdown, where civil servants remain unpaid and departments lack funding. However, France’s Constitution provides several scenarios that could maintain order in the country’s affairs. French institutions are relatively robust, and the laws ensure continuity even in the absence of a government and a budget. Nevertheless, the country may experience economic repercussions, as investors are already selling off French stocks and bonds, which is increasing borrowing costs.
The current predicament can be traced back to Mr. Barnier’s appointment in September by President Emmanuel Macron. This decision came after disastrous parliamentary election results for Macron’s party and its allies. Instead of appointing a politician from the leftist coalition that secured the most votes, Macron chose Barnier, a centrist right figure, which incited anger from the leftist coalition.
Since his appointment, Mr. Barnier has faced significant challenges, often described as “the hell of Matignon,” a term used to convey the difficulties of governing from Matignon Palace, the seat of the government.
On Monday, Barnier advanced a budget bill through the lower house of Parliament without a vote, a risky maneuver that prompted no-confidence motions from both the left-wing parties and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party. The future of Mr. Barnier and his cabinet, appointed just three months ago by Mr. Macron, now hinges on the outcome of the vote.
The no-confidence vote is anticipated to occur on Wednesday and is likely to pass, which would compel Mr. Barnier to resign and transition the government into caretaker mode.
Previously, Mr. Macron’s government operated in caretaker mode from July to September, empowered under the Constitution to manage “current affairs” but restricted in its capabilities. While there are no specific legal texts outlining these limitations, legal experts agree that a caretaker government cannot propose new laws or issue new decrees, although it can manage essential government functions, such as paying workers and distributing pensions.
In the event of a resignation, it will be up to Mr. Macron to appoint a new prime minister, a decision he can take his time with and does not have to limit to someone from the majority party in Parliament.
As for the budget, it would enter a state of limbo without a functioning government. The budget proposed by Mr. Barnier, which includes around $60 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, would effectively be nullified. If Mr. Macron acts swiftly and appoints a new prime minister before the year ends, a new government budget could be submitted, allowing Parliament 70 days to review it.
However, this scenario would still mean that France would lack a spending law by the new year. Under French law, the government could propose a “special measure” to reapply the 2024 budget by December 19, ensuring civil servants are paid and taxes remain unchanged. Should Parliament reject this proposal or fail to hold a vote, Mr. Macron could invoke his extraordinary constitutional powers to impose a budget. Legal experts caution that such an unprecedented move could have severe political repercussions, particularly as President Macron faces increasing challenges regarding his governance.
According to France’s constitution, Mr. Macron will remain president until his term expires in 2027. However, it is likely that his political stature will diminish further. Calls for his resignation are emerging from both the left and right, although he has resisted these demands. As he is term-limited, he cannot seek another term in office.