Ten years have passed since Ajoon Khan’s son was killed in a deadly attack by the Pakistani Taliban, which claimed the lives of approximately 150 individuals, predominantly children, at a military-run school in Peshawar, Pakistan.
Mr. Khan, a lawyer, expressed that the pain of loss has only intensified over time. He recalled the distressing scenes outside the school during the attack, stating, “It has been nearly a decade, but it feels like nothing has changed.” He noted that despite the sacrifices made, the current security situation suggests that these sacrifices were in vain.
The Peshawar school assault prompted a rare political consensus in Pakistan, leading to a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy and extensive military operations in the country’s former tribal regions. These actions forced militants to retreat and resulted in a significant reduction in terrorist attacks, with fatalities dropping from 2,451 in 2013 to 220 in 2020.
However, experts indicate that the progress gained from these efforts is now at risk. Violence from the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups has surged in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in recent years, a trend attributed to the Afghan Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan in August 2021.
Additionally, ethnic separatist groups in Baluchistan have become more active, targeting security forces and Chinese nationals involved in infrastructure projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. These groups claim the Pakistani government is allowing China to exploit the region’s resources.
Recent reports from the Interior Ministry revealed that 924 people, including civilians and law enforcement officers, were killed in 1,566 terrorist incidents over the past 10 months. The ministry also reported the deaths of 341 terrorists during this period. A notable recent incident was an attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that resulted in 16 fatalities, primarily among soldiers.
Experts and security officials cite multiple challenges affecting Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts, including political instability, weak governance, declining public support, economic constraints, and diminished U.S. counterterrorism assistance following the end of the war in Afghanistan. Muhammad Amir Rana, director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, emphasized the difficulties in mobilizing financial resources and manpower for expansive operations.
Analysts argue that the main issues stem from Afghanistan, where the Taliban government is accused of providing a safe haven for the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (T.T.P.). Experts suggest that the T.T.P. has become more resilient and dangerous due to this support.
Pakistani officials privately acknowledged their misjudgment regarding the Taliban's handling of the T.T.P., expecting them to help mitigate the threat instead of providing resources and advanced weaponry.
The T.T.P. has increased its attacks within Pakistan, aiming to overthrow the government. One significant incident was a suicide bombing in January 2023 that claimed over 100 lives at a mosque in Peshawar.
In Baluchistan, conflicts with ethnic separatist groups have intensified, with the Baluch Liberation Army (B.L.A.) employing lethal tactics and modern weaponry. A recent suicide bombing at a railway station in Quetta resulted in nearly 30 deaths.
Pressure from China has mounted on Pakistani authorities to enhance security for Chinese workers in the country, as attacks threaten billions of dollars in investments crucial for Pakistan’s struggling economy. Recent attacks have included the killings of Chinese nationals by the B.L.A. and the T.T.P.
In response to the escalating violence, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a military operation against ethnic separatist groups, though details remain vague. Observers note that the current political and public sentiment is less supportive of large-scale military actions compared to a decade ago.
The political landscape is polarized, particularly due to the prolonged detention of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, while the financial burden of military operations poses significant concerns amidst ongoing economic instability.
Residents in northwestern Pakistan are reminded of the previous climate of fear as violence resurfaces. Jamaluddin Afridi, a trader in Peshawar, remarked that the school attack transformed public helplessness into a unified national response against terrorism, yet current sentiments reflect disappointment with the military's focus on internal political issues rather than public safety.
Mr. Afridi noted that the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups are exploiting the security gap, leading to extortion against businesses. He recounted paying $3,800 to the T.T.P. to safeguard his family's wellbeing, expressing concern that the government appears to be awaiting another tragedy similar to the school attack.