In the West African nation of Niger, violence attributed to insurgents has escalated since the military coup in July 2023, which resulted in the expulsion of U.S. and European troops and a halt to negotiations with Islamist groups.
Recent attacks have led to the deaths of dozens of civilians and soldiers, highlighting the military's inability to restore security nearly 18 months after the coup. The military leaders had initially asserted that they were better equipped to address the rampant jihadist insurgency, but violence has intensified, including assaults on military personnel and civilian targets.
The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for several attacks, all occurring in western Niger, an area where affiliates of both the Islamic State and Al Qaeda operate. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (A.C.L.E.D.) indicates that militant groups have killed nearly double the number of civilians since the coup compared to the preceding 18 months.
Following the coup, Niger’s military rulers expelled French troops and ordered the withdrawal of U.S. forces from a significant airbase. They have sought military support from Russia and maintained ties with Turkey, which has provided drones. Consequently, civilian fatalities have surged.
Political scientists have criticized the military's strategy, suggesting it relies solely on force without a comprehensive plan. Niger has also announced plans to strengthen ties with military regimes in Burkina Faso and Mali through the establishment of the Alliance of Sahel States, while intending to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Over the past six months, Niger has reported the highest civilian death toll among the three nations involved. A recent United Nations report highlighted the severe nature of the violence, particularly in the Tillabéry region near the borders with Burkina Faso and Mali.
Government figures indicate that armed assailants killed at least 39 civilians in two recent attacks, one of which involved the destruction of the village of Libiri. Additionally, an attack in Chatoumane reportedly resulted in significant military casualties, with estimates suggesting around 90 soldiers were killed, contrasting with the government’s lower figures.
Security analysts attribute the rise in jihadist violence to the cessation of negotiations that had been initiated by former President Mohamed Bazoum, who is currently detained. Experts note that the previous engagement with insurgent groups had led to a decrease in civilian casualties.
Despite the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States nearly a year ago, there have been few operational successes against insurgent forces. Attacks on supply convoys have become common, with recent incidents involving the destruction of trucks in Burkina Faso.
Logistical challenges have hampered cooperation among military forces in the region, as each is preoccupied with its own security issues. Reports indicate that truck convoys face lengthy delays waiting for military escorts, and armed attacks on infrastructure, such as an oil pipeline, continue to pose significant risks.
Niger’s ambassador to the United States has expressed concerns regarding the military leaders' ability to manage the deteriorating security situation.