Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, has made a significant diplomatic move by supplying an estimated 11,000 troops and weapons to Russia to support its ongoing war in Ukraine.
This deployment is intended to bolster Russia’s military efforts, with North Korean troops reportedly engaging alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region to reclaim territories lost to Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder noted that there are indications of casualties among North Korean soldiers in the conflict.
The troop deployment is expected to provide North Korea with various advantages, including financial support and increased diplomatic leverage. Analysts suggest that Kim is receiving considerable aid from Russia, including food, oil, cash, and advanced weaponry, which will help his regime withstand international sanctions and enhance its military capabilities.
Over the past decade, Kim's regime has faced multiple challenges, including crippling U.N. sanctions that severely impacted North Korea’s economy by prohibiting major exports and limiting oil imports. Attempts to negotiate the lifting of these sanctions with former U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed in 2019, damaging Kim's domestic image. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the economic situation.
North Korea, facing isolation, recognized an opportunity to support Russia as the latter's invasion of Ukraine continued. The North Korean military, one of the largest conventional forces globally, possesses extensive stockpiles of weaponry, including outdated artillery and newly developed ballistic missiles.
The partnership between North Korea and Russia began to take shape following a visit from Russia’s then-defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, to a weapons parade in Pyongyang in July last year. This was followed by North Korean arms being sent to Russia, and a summit between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin in September showcased potential mutual benefits.
A treaty of mutual defense and cooperation was signed in June, leading to the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia. Additionally, North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with substantial quantities of weaponry, including artillery shells and ballistic missiles.
Kim's recent meeting with Russia’s new defense minister reinforced North Korea’s commitment to supporting Russia and expanding their military ties. The increased arms exports are revitalizing North Korea’s munitions industry, with calls from Kim for heightened production capabilities.
North Korea has reportedly generated up to $5.5 billion from arms deals with Russia, with troop deployment potentially yielding an estimated $572 million annually, a substantial figure for the North. However, the specifics of how Russia compensates North Korea remain undisclosed.
North Korea is also gaining valuable military insights from the conflict, with opportunities to observe and test its missile systems against Western defenses. This engagement may provide Kim with leverage to negotiate for advanced military technologies in the future.
Despite the potential benefits, the troop deployment carries risks for Kim. North Korean special forces are engaged in combat alongside Russian troops, but their preparedness for the specific conditions of the Ukrainian battlefield remains uncertain. South Korean officials are monitoring the situation closely, as the performance of North Korean forces may reveal vulnerabilities.
Furthermore, the significant transfer of military supplies to Russia could weaken North Korea's own defense capabilities. Analysts suggest that the current level of support for Russia may leave North Korea unable to effectively engage in conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Some experts express skepticism about the longevity of the North Korea-Russia alliance, noting that Russia accounts for a minimal portion of North Korea's trade compared to China, which dominates its international economic relations. Recent data indicates a decline in bilateral trade between North Korea and China, which could complicate Kim's strategy of balancing relations between the two powers.