The recent signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has coincided with a resurgence of conflict in Syria, as Syrian rebels launched significant offensives against President Bashar al-Assad's forces in the northwestern region of the country.
Rebel groups have reportedly taken control of large areas, including much of Aleppo, and have forced Russian forces to retreat from a base nearby. Additionally, Iranian-backed militias have lost control of the town of Tel Rifaat, close to the Turkish border, as indicated by Syrian humanitarian and research organizations.
This sudden escalation highlights the ongoing geopolitical rivalries that have characterized Syria since the uprising in 2011. Iran and Russia have long supported al-Assad's regime militarily, while Turkey and the United States maintain a presence in the country, backing different rebel factions.
The recent offensive has seen various rebel groups unite under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously affiliated with Al Qaeda, seizing the moment as the Syrian government and its allies appear weakened by concurrent conflicts. Analysts suggest that recent military actions against Hezbollah and Iranian leaders may have encouraged this timing.
Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, noted that preparations for the offensive had been underway for weeks, and the rapid capture of Aleppo surprised many observers.
The renewed fighting raises questions about the strength of al-Assad's regime and may hinder the international acceptance of his leadership in Syria. Despite Russia and Iran's backing, the effectiveness of their support is now under scrutiny, with recent airstrikes failing to significantly alter the battlefield dynamics.
Concerns from Arab states regarding Syria’s sovereignty have emerged, particularly in relation to Turkey’s ongoing support for rebel groups. Analysts have noted a diplomatic shift in the region, with nations expressing unease over the potential collapse of the Assad regime and Turkish expansionism.
Iran's military operations in Syria have been increasingly disrupted by Israeli airstrikes, which have intensified over the past year, targeting arms supplies and leadership within Iranian-backed militias.
The rebels' recent military successes, including the capture of a military academy near Aleppo, may set the stage for further offensive operations, according to the Omran Center for Strategic Studies. This development poses new challenges for Russia in adapting to the changing dynamics of the conflict.
Turkey and the United States continue to support opposing factions in Syria, with Turkey backing the Syrian National Army and the U.S. collaborating with Kurdish forces to combat the Islamic State. Despite underlying tensions, both nations have avoided direct confrontations in the region.
Coordination between Syrian rebels and Ukraine has reportedly increased, with both parties sharing a common goal of opposing Russian influence. While Ukrainian officials have not publicly addressed the Syrian offensive, there have been statements regarding targeting Russian forces globally.
Observers outside Syria note that this offensive appears distinct from previous conflicts, with diminished morale among government forces and widespread poverty contributing to the rapid territorial losses experienced by al-Assad's regime.