In Syria, the era of Bashar al-Assad has come to an end following a swift offensive by rebel groups that deposed his regime after a 13-year civil war. The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has taken the lead in establishing a transitional government, though significant chaos persists across the country as various factions continue to vie for power, alongside external influences from countries like Israel, Turkey, and the United States.
A recent study analyzed numerous rebellions since 1900 to understand why some rebel factions successfully establish lasting governments while others succumb to renewed conflict. The researchers determined that the key factor influencing the durability of these governments is unity among the rebel factions. Specifically, rebellions that are unified under a single dominant group are more likely to form stable governments, whereas those that are fragmented tend to collapse into civil strife shortly after achieving victory.
The researchers, including political science professors from Georgetown, the University of Virginia, and Emory University, found that fractured alliances struggle to maintain cohesion once the common enemy is defeated. Historical examples, such as the civil wars in Somalia and Libya, illustrate how collaborative efforts among multiple groups often disintegrate post-rebellion, leading to further conflict.
In rare instances, however, one faction has managed to assert dominance over others within a fractured coalition, facilitating the establishment of a more unified government. The study identified only four cases where power-sharing among divided factions succeeded for at least a decade, with three of these instances occurring in democratic contexts that enabled competitive elections.
Syria's current landscape is marked by a lack of unity among rebel groups, many of which receive foreign support and represent various ethnic and religious interests. Recently, Israel has intensified its military actions in Syrian territory, further complicating the situation, while Turkey and the United States continue their air operations in the region.
Despite these challenges, there are indications of potential progress, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has expressed commitments to protect minority groups and has shown willingness to collaborate with former regime officials in forming a transitional government. The success of any future power-sharing arrangement will largely depend on the ability of Syrian factions to negotiate among themselves, with the international community's role being to facilitate rather than interfere.