Ukraine's recent assassination of Russian General Igor Kirillov on a Moscow street has been described as a significant achievement for Ukraine's intelligence services, reflecting years of investment in covert operations. However, experts caution that while the act may infuriate the Kremlin, it is unlikely to alter the balance of power in the ongoing conflict.
Killing Kirillov, who had reportedly sanctioned the use of banned chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces, may instill a sense of vulnerability among Russian military and political leaders. Nonetheless, Western officials assert that Ukraine continues to face challenging battlefield conditions, with Russian forces gaining ground in key regions. Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrsky indicated that fighting is ongoing across a vast front line, including Russian offensives threatening the eastern Donetsk area.
Military experts, including former C.I.A. station chief Douglas London, suggest that while the assassination creates a psychological impact, it will not enhance Russia's warfighting capabilities. The situation for Ukrainian forces has become increasingly precarious, with evacuations ordered for over 300,000 residents in conflict-affected areas as Russian forces approach major cities.
Despite the desperate circumstances, Ukraine has honed its skills in covert operations, using them as a strategic response in a war where conventional options are waning. Historical context shows that prior to the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine and Russia engaged in covert operations characterized by targeted assassinations of political and military figures.
The inventive method used to kill General Kirillov involved a bomb attached to a scooter, detonated remotely as he left a residential building. This assassination reflects a level of planning and technical skill developed by Ukraine's domestic intelligence service, the SBU, which has been responsible for several notable strikes against Russian targets.
Ukrainian officials, including former SBU chief Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, noted the importance of preparations made since 2014 to develop capable teams for such operations, receiving training from U.S. agencies. However, Russian officials have vowed retaliation, pledging to avenge the general's death.
While Ukraine's intelligence services have successfully conducted operations on Russian soil, experts warn that such strategies may not yield long-term benefits. Concerns persist that these actions could provoke a stronger Russian response, complicating the prospect of negotiations and peace efforts. Some officials within Ukraine have expressed skepticism regarding the effectiveness of such targeted operations, suggesting that they do not significantly impact the strategic landscape of the conflict.
As the situation evolves, the ongoing reliance on covert actions raises questions about the long-term consequences for Ukraine's military strategy and diplomatic efforts in the context of the war.